DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...96 AT BLYTHE CA AND IMPERIAL CA AND THERMAL CA LOW THU...19 AT WEST YELLOWSTONE MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...AKRON CANTON OH 1.93 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement early in the outlook period, fair agreement later in the period. I favor a blend between the models today. The models continue to forecast a building ridge over the eastern US and the western Atlantic region during the outlook period. This ridge becomes fairly strong for a time, for the season. The US model holds the ridge over the east coast states for 2-3 days before weakening it at the end of the period. The European model holds it in a little longer but shifts it slightly to the east at the end of the period. The models continue to feature a series of troughs moving across the Pacific Northwest before dropping southward over the Rockies and the plains and then lifting north again as they move into the Midwest region...likely deflected to the north by the eastern US ridge. It is expected to turn very warm in the eastern US for a time during this period while the western US turns much cooler. The rain chances remain fairly high from the central plains region through the west and central Midwest areas.

Depending on how long the eastern ridge holds the eastern third of the Midwest may be drier for a time. However, even if it is dry and very warm or hot for a time it would probably not last very long before rain and cooler weather returned to the area.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat): Recent and forecasted rains improve and maintain soil moisture for winter wheat in the plains. Recent warm temperatures will promote more rapid development of the crop. A cooler trend will slow growth rates somewhat, for a time. Cooler, wet weather will continue to slow corn planting.

EAST AND SOUTH MIDWEST AND THE DELTA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Warm temperatures and episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers favor winter wheat and earlier planted corn. Rainfall continues, at times, to slow the planting effort for corn. However, some locations may be dry enough to allow for further planting of corn.

UPPER MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS: Wet weather and wet conditions may further slow spring planting through the region.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES: I see no significant rain or snow events during the next 7 days, although some light precipitation may occur at times. This should allow for more favorable soil moisture conditions for early spring fieldwork, except near the rivers in the east that were in flood this spring.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER): A more favorable weather pattern for maturing summer crops and harvesting at this time. Light to moderate showers may impact Cordoba and Santa Fe early next week but most of the time it will be drier.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Scattered rains in Parana and MGDS with more likely during the coming days. This will favor development of second crop corn.

Rainfall from Parana south to RGDS may be somewhat unfavorable for mature soybeans and the ongoing harvest.

UKRAINE/SOUTH RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/SPRING GRAINS/CORN): Colder temperatures continue for a few more days before moderating. This will slow development of winter grains, germination and development of early planted spring grains. Rain is moving across South Ukraine towards South Russia at this time. This will maintain favorable soil moisture for winter grains and any early planted spring grains. Dryness is still a concern for a portion of central Ukraine but the area of concern is shrinking.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to below normal.

East: Rain, 0.10-0.75 inch, through northeast and east-central areas during the past 24 hours. Light or very light showers through west-central and southwest areas. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal.

Forecast...

West: Moderate to locally heavy rain is expected through central and southern Missouri today into tonight. Drier elsewhere in the region during this time.

Mostly dry during the weekend. Temperatures average below normal today, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Dry or with only a few light showers Monday and Tuesday. Light to moderate showers may develop Wednesday, possibly favoring southern and eastern areas.

Temperatures average above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

East: Rain, moderate to locally heavy, is expected today or during Saturday mainly occurring south of a line between Saint Louis and Dayton Ohio. Mainly dry during Sunday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, except possibly warmer near the Ohio river. Temperatures mostly below normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday. Dry or with only light rain or showers through northwest and north areas Tuesday. Light to locally moderate showers Wednesday.

Temperatures average above normal during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat in western areas while averaging above to well above normal through the east. Rainfall should average near to mostly above normal, although there is a slight chance for near to below normal rainfall through eastern most areas.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Light to moderate rain occurred mostly overnight in eastern Colorado, west and southeast Kansas, the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and from central through northeast Oklahoma. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast: Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms today into tonight in southeast Kansas, northeast and central Oklahoma. Light to moderate showers are possible elsewhere in Kansas and Oklahoma as well as in eastern Colorado and northeast Texas during this time. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures average below normal during this period, except extreme southern areas may be somewhat warmer for today before cooling off tomorrow.

Mostly dry Monday. Dry or with only a few light showers favoring northern areas Tuesday. Light to locally moderate showers favoring north and central areas during Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal early in the period, below normal late in the period. Rainfall should average near to above normal, except possibly near to below normal in southwest locations.

Brazil (Soybeans/Corn)

Mato Grosso Do Sul, Parana, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul

Summary: Moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers occurred in Parana and MGDS during the past 24 hours. Only light or very light showers in RGDS during this time. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

Forecast: A little light rain or showers may occur today, possibly favoring northern RGDS and Santa Catarina. Mostly dry tomorrow and Sunday. Temperatures average below to near normal today and Saturday, somewhat warmer during Sunday.

Light to moderate showers and thundershowers develop in the south and spread north Monday and Tuesday. Showers may linger in MGDS into Wednesday.

Temperatures may be somewhat warmer ahead of this new front but they should turn cooler again behind it.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa

Summary: Dry or with only a little drizzle during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures averaged near to above normal yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Saturday. Scattered showers during Sunday will tend to favor La Pampa and Buenos Aires. Temperatures average near to below normal today and Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Light to moderate showers and thundershowers during Monday or Tuesday will mostly occur in Cordoba and Santa Fe. Little elsewhere in the region during these days. Mostly dry during Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal Monday, cooler Tuesday and Wednesday...much cooler through La Pampa and southern Buenos Aires.

Joel Burgio

(SK)