DTN Early Word Grains

By Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst

6:00 a.m. CME Globex:

May corn was fractionally lower, May soybeans were fractionally higher, and July Kansas City (HRW) wheat was fractionally higher.

CME Globex Recap:

Grains were mixed early Thursday morning with most contracts fractionally changed from Wednesday's close. Soybeans, Kansas City wheat, and Minneapolis spring wheat were on the plus side while corn and Chicago wheat were lower. Outside markets were also mixed, though both the U.S. dollar index and DJIA futures were showing small gains.

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 41.09 points (0.2%) lower at 20,648.15. The NASDAQ Composite lost 34.13 points (0.6%) to 5,864.48 and the S&P 500 slipped 7.21 points (0.3%) to 2,352.95 Wednesday. DJIA futures were 3 points higher early Thursday morning. Asian markets closed mostly lower with Japan's Nikkei down 264.21 points (1.4%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng losing 127.08 points (0.5%), and China's Shanghai Composite adding 10.70 points (0.3%). European markets were trading mostly lower Thursday with London's FTSE 100 down 32.22 points (0.4%), Germany's DAX off 42.49 points (0.4%), and France's CAC 40 gaining 2.35 points. The euro was 0.0002 lower at 1.0663 while the U.S. dollar index gained 0.06 to 100.58. June 30-year T-Bonds were 8/32 lower at 151'08 while June gold gained $6.70 to $1,255.20. Crude oil was unchanged at $51.15 while Brent crude added $0.04 to $54.40. China's Dalian soybean futures were higher and Malaysian palm oil futures lower overnight.

	BULL		BEAR
1)	The corn markets' recently established short-term uptrends remain in place.	1)	Corn continues to generate much buying enthusiasm.
2)	Soybean futures did establish short-term uptrends following Wednesday's rally.	2)	Private estimates of Brazilian soybean production continue to climb almost every day.
3)	Technically, both new-crop July Chicago and Kansas City futures contracts look ready to rejoin recently established short-term uptrends.	3)	Outstanding wheat sales could start to be rolled to new-crop in weekly Export Sales and Shipments reports.

The weekly Newsom on the Market column can be found on subscription sites only. On DTN Pro it is in News/Town Hall and on MyDTN in News/Columns.

MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN So far, corn's recently established short-term uptrends have been less than scintillating. Old-crop May and new-crop December both posted trading ranges of less than 2 cents overnight through early Thursday morning, posting fractional losses heading into dawn's first light. Fundamentally, old-crop could get a spark of buying interest if weekly export shipments (for the week ending Thursday, March 30) come in large again. However, this too could be short-lived as it is old news. Still, the bottom-line will be that corn shipments are running well ahead USDA's March projected pace of a 17% marketing year-to-marketing year increase, with the April Supply and Demand reports just around the corner next Tuesday.

SOYBEANS On the bullish side of the soybean ledger: Contracts were trading higher after establishing short-term uptrends on daily charts following Wednesday's solid rally. On the bearish side: Contracts were showing fractional gains, unable to move beyond Wednesday's highs despite still being sharply oversold. Yes, the overnight session was quiet, and often that doesn't bode well for the soybean market as the day progresses. But daily charts do indeed show uptrends Thursday morning that could start to bring buying back to the markets. On the other hand, it seems but a matter of time before the next bidder gets into the Brazilian soybean production estimate auction with Wednesday's 113.8 mmt still fresh on traders' minds. As for weekly export sales and shipments, the latter should continue to run ahead of USDA's March projected 5% marketing year-to-marketing year increase. However, unshipped sales were already approaching 300 mb in the previous report leaving the market open to cancelations.

WHEAT Winter wheat contracts were fractionally mixed early Thursday morning, and that could be the most interesting thing written about either the Kansas City (HRW) or Chicago (SRW) market over the course of the day. Yes, new-crop July contracts for both remain in short-term uptrends on daily charts but no, that hasn't helped either break out recent consolidation patterns. Traders will take note of weekly export sales and shipments (for the week ending Thursday, March 30), with shipments expected to still be slightly behind pace to meet USDA's projected 32% marketing year-to-marketing year increase. Also, unshipped bushels were near 220 mb in the last report and with the end of the 2016-2017 marketing year fast approaching, increasing the likelihood of rolling some sales to the next marketing year.

	DTN Cash	Change From	National	Contract	Change from
Commodity	Index	Prev Day	Avg. Basis	Month	Prev Day
Corn:	$3.27	$0.01	-$0.38	May	-$0.004
Soybeans:	$8.69	$0.07	-$0.76	May	$0.004
SRW Wheat:	$3.88	$0.02	-$0.42	May	-$0.009
HRW Wheat:	$3.34	$0.04	-$0.91	May	$0.003
HRS Wheat:	$4.83	-$0.03	-$0.41	May	-$0.004

Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com

Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

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