DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 3/4 cent in the May contract and up 1/4 cent in the December. Soybeans were down 3 cents in the May contract and down 4 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 1 cent in the May Chicago contract, down 1/2 cent in the May Kansas City, and up 8 1/4 cents in the May Minneapolis contract.

The June U.S. dollar index is up 0.36 at 99.90. April gold is down $3.50 at $1,252.10 while May silver is down 4 cents and May copper is up $0.0030. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 25 at 20,677. May crude oil is up $1.04 at $49.41. May heating oil is up $0.0239 while May RBOB gasoline is up $0.0357 and May natural gas is up $0.046.

Corn:

May corn was up 3/4 cent Wednesday after another quiet session as traders continue to wait for Friday's Prospective Planting and March 1 Grain Stocks reports from USDA. Dow Jones' survey of analysts expects USDA to estimate 91 million acres of corn plantings this spring and 8.55 billion bushels of corn on hand as of March 1. The stocks estimate, if true, would mean that 8.39 bb have been used, record demand for the first half of the season and representing nearly half of this season's beginning supplies. Just this week, Brazil's spot corn price has become competitive with the U.S. again for the first time since last June. Corn demand for ethanol remains a source of support for corn prices as the Energy Department reported on Wednesday that last week's ethanol production increased from 1.044 to 1.054 million barrels a day. Ethanol inventory increased from 22.6 to 23.3 million barrels, slightly above last year's seasonal peak. May corn continues to trend gradually lower in March with prices showing short-term support ahead of Friday's reports. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.19 Tuesday, priced 39 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest price in 2017. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.36, rebounding higher a second day while more Federal Reserve officials have been talking about chances for multiple rate hikes in 2017.

Soybeans:

May soybeans closed down a few cents in another quiet day of trading ahead of Friday's USDA reports. Dow Jones' survey expects USDA to estimate soybean acres at a record high 88.1 million acres, which is obviously bearish if true, but also well-anticipated. One of the problems is that USDA's survey of producers has the same shortcomings inherent in any poll, and intentions don't always equal actual results. Dow Jones' survey also expects USDA to find 1.679 bb of soybeans on hand as of March 1, an amount that indicates 63% disappearance in the first half of the season, if true. While that is a bullish start for the year, Brazil's record harvest, which is now over 70% complete, will present stiff competition for U.S. exports in the second half of 2016-17. May soybeans remain in a downtrend with no sign of support yet. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.96 Tuesday, priced 76 cents below the May contract and near its lowest price in five months.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat closed up a penny, but really hasn't moved much the past week as traders have been anticipating the rain currently working its way through the southwestern U.S. Plains. Tuesday afternoon's International Crop Summary from USDA showed favorable weather conditions around the world once again and so far, traders have no reason to expect significant trouble in early 2017. Temperatures in the southern U.S. Plains remain safely warm and the current weather pattern favors more precipitation in the extended forecast -- a bearish outlook for wheat prices. Friday's USDA reports are expected to show 46.1 ma of all wheat plantings, the lowest in over a century. 1.62 bb of U.S. wheat stocks are also expected as of March 1 and neither number is apt to have much impact on Friday's wheat prices. With this week's rain and more in the forecast, May Chicago wheat remains under bearish pressure, but appear cheap enough to have found short-term support. Wednesday's more bullish move came from May Minneapolis wheat, ending up 8 1/4 cents with help from commercial buying. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.83 Tuesday, priced 42 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest price in eight weeks. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.30 and up from its lowest price in over two months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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