DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...92 AT MCALLEN TX

LOW MON...17 AT CLIMAX CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...COLUMBUS OH 1.21 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in only fair agreement during the outlook period. I am using mostly today's US model. The European model appears to have too much trough moving from the central plains northeastward across the western Midwest and into the Great Lakes region during the middle of the period and not enough trough over the southern plains towards the end of the period.

Weak to moderate troughs will continue to move across the Rockies and into the southern plains region before turning east-northeast through the middle Miss river valley and the Ohio river valley during the outlook period. This remains an active weather pattern for the central and southern plains, the Delta, the southern and the eastern Midwest. The northern plains region may see some light activity during the period but most likely below normal for the date. The southeast is somewhat more uncertain as there is some indication of weak ridging in the area but we also see disturbances breaking this ridge down at times. This could go either way but I would tend to side with more rain rather than less rain based on an active southern branch jet stream. No significant cold weather in the US but the troughs may generate below normal daytime temperatures at times.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat/Livestock): Beneficial rainfall during the next

6-10 days will improve conditions for developing winter wheat. Crop ratings have been falling due to hot/dry weather depleting soil moisture.

AUSTRALIA (SUGARCANE/SORGHUM/COTTON): A powerful tropical cyclone (Debbie) has made landfall along the Queensland coast during the past 12 hours. Strong winds, torrential rains and severe flooding are likely to have caused widespread and severe damage to property and in the area of landfall. The area impacted so far is a major sugarcane producer but the system may also bring heavy to torrential rains into the northern part of the sorghum belt as it moves inland today. Heavy rains and severe thunderstorms are expected to turn southward and move into the major sorghum and Cotton areas during the next

24-36 hours. Sorghum and cotton are being harvested this time of year.

Sugarcane is developing. Damage to these crops appears likely. Severe damage is possible.

MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS: Generally favorable conditions for the upcoming spring planting season.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES: No significant precipitation is expected during the 5 day period.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER): Favorable conditions for late filling and maturing corn and soybeans in the major growing areas.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Favorable conditions for developing second crop corn in central Brazil. Favorable conditions for maturing and harvesting soybeans in southern Brazil.

EAST MIDWEST/DELTA (WINTER WHEAT): Favorable conditions for developing winter wheat. Corn planting is underway in the Delta states.

FRANCE/GERMANY (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Generous rains during March has helped ease concerns for crops that are well ahead of normal development.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Crops will benefit from a warmer period with only scattered shower activity, after prior heavy rains hit the region.

UKRAINE/SOUTH RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Recent warm weather has melted much, if not all, of the protective snow cover and even lead to some greening of crops in southern areas. The crop would be more vulnerable in the event of a turn to colder conditions. Cooler and unsettled weather is likely during the next week or so but it is not expected that this would be cold enough to cause harm to the crop at this stage.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Wintertime shower activity and cooler temperatures has likely favored winter crops across Pakistan and north India. A turn to drier, hotter weather more recently should favor maturing winter crops but may be somewhat unfavorable for late developing crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Dry or with only a little light rain and drizzle through northern Missouri and in southeast Iowa during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal.

East: Light to moderate rain with locally heavier through southern and central areas during the past 24 hours. Drier through the north during this time.

Temperatures averaged near to above normal north, above normal south.

Forecast...

West: Mainly dry today. Rain and thunderstorms develop through southwest areas overnight tonight. Moderate to locally heavy showers favoring southern, central and eastern areas during Wednesday. Rain may linger in the east Thursday.

Temperatures average above normal today, near to below normal Wednesday and Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday and early Saturday. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier later Saturday or during Sunday. Temperatures average near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday and Sunday.

East: Mostly dry today. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers with locally heavier through western areas Wednesday and Wednesday night and through eastern areas during Thursday. Temperatures average above normal today, near to below normal north and near to above normal south Wednesday and Thursday.

Light rain or showers may linger in southeast areas Friday. Mainly dry Saturday. Dry or with only isolated light showers favoring west and south areas Sunday. Temperatures average near to below normal west and near to above normal east Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal. Precipitation near to below normal northwest, near to above normal south and east.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast: Showers, thunderstorms and rain today and Wednesday. Rain may linger in the east during Thursday. Rainfall potential appears to be 0.50-1.50 inches and locally heavier. Coverage near general. Temperatures average near to above normal today, below normal west and north and above normal southeast Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday. Scattered light to locally moderate showers during Saturday. Showers and thundershowers south, drier north, during Sunday.

Temperatures averaged near to below normal north and west and above normal southeast Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period. Rainfall should average near to above normal.

Brazil (Soybeans)

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana

Summary: Dry or with only isolated light showers in eastern areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal southwest, near to below normal northeast.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Thursday. Temperatures average near to above normal in western and northern areas, somewhat cooler through southeast locations.

Mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Temperatures average near to above normal during this period.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias.

Summary: Moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers in Mato Grosso during the past 24 hours, light to moderate showers in Goias and dry in MGDS.

Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring northwest and north areas today. Showers may continue Wednesday and Thursday in west and north areas of Mato Grosso and in north areas of Goias while the balance of the region turns somewhat drier. Temperatures average near to above normal during this period.

Scattered showers mainly in west and north Mato Grosso Friday through Sunday. Dry or with only a few light showers elsewhere in the region.

Temperatures near to below normal in the east, near to above normal west.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers will mainly occur in Cordoba Wednesday and Thursday.

Temperatures average above normal during this period.

Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers favoring western areas during Friday. A few showers and thundershowers move through central and eastern areas during the weekend. Temperatures average above normal Friday, somewhat cooler during the weekend.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast: Dry or with only a few showers and thundershowers in extreme southwest areas today. Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers develop through La Pampa and into southwest Buenos Aires Wednesday and Thursday.

Temperatures average above normal today and Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers through La Pampa and southwestern Buenos Aires Friday through Sunday. A few showers and isolated thundershowers elsewhere in the region. Temperatures average near to below normal in the west, near to above normal east.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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