DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...98 AT PRESIDIO TX

LOW THU...20 BELOW ZERO AT MOUNT WASHINGTON NH

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...SALT LAKE CITY UT 2.07 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in good agreement days 6-9, fair agreement day 10. An El Nino signature pattern meaning an active southern branch of the jet stream is expected during the period. The mean trough position with this jet will be over the southwest states. This implies slow moving disturbances coming out of the southwest states with gulf moisture able to move far enough back to the west to impact the southern plains winter wheat areas with beneficial precipitation. A moderate to heavy event is expected Tuesday-Wednesday of next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS: Generally favorable conditions for the upcoming spring planting season.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES: No significant precipitation is expected during the 5 day period.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat/Livestock): Beneficial precipitation during the next 10 days will improve conditions for developing winter wheat. Crop ratings have been falling due to hot/dry weather depleting soil moisture.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER): Favorable conditions for late filling aned maturing corn and soybeans in the major growing areas.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Favorable conditions for developing second crop corn in central Brazil. Favorable conditions for maturing and harvesting soybeans in southern Brazil.

EAST MIDWEST/DELTA (WINTER WHEAT): Favorable conditions for developing winter wheat. Corn planting is underway in the Delta stattes,

FRANCE/GERMANY (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Generous rains during the first 10 days of March has helped ease concerns for crops that are well ahead of normal development.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Crops will benefit from a warmer period with only scattered shower activity, after prior heavy rains hit the region.

UKRAINE/SOUTH RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Recent warm weather has melted much, if not all, of the protective snow cover and even lead to some greening of crops in southern areas. The crop would be more vulnerable in the event of a turn to colder conditions. Cooler and unsettled weather is likely during the next week or so but it is not expected that this would be cold enough to cause harm to the crop at this stage.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT): A significant rain event spread needed moisture to the winter wheat areas of Pakistan and India late in January. This should supplement irrigation for the crop likely jointing to possibly early reproductive at the time and will be considered favorable. Scattered showers redeveloped in the area again at the end of last week and during the early weekend period.

AUSTRALIA (SORGHUM/COTTON): Recent rainfall and cooler conditions favor late developing crops in the area. Heavier rainfall due to thunderstorms in the area during the past week have been unfavorable for mature summer crops and will likely delay harvesting and may impact quality.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Scattered light to locally moderate showers. Temperatures variable.

East: Scattered light showers in the north and west. Temperatures variable.

Forecast...

West: Episodes of rain Friday-Saturday. Light to moderate amounts with locally heavier expected. Dry conditions or just a little light rain Sunday. Light to moderate rain over southern areas Monday. Dry weather Tuesday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Wednesday. Chance of rain favoring central and southern areas Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Dry conditions or just a few light showers Friday. Episodes of rain Saturday-Monday. Moderate to heavy totals are expected. Mostly dry weather Tuesday-Wednesday. Chance of rain Thursday. Temperatures above normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures near to above normal. Precipitation near to below normal northwest, near to above normal south and east.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Scattered light to locally moderate showers in the west. Temperatures much above normal.

Forecast: Rain Friday favoring northern and western areas. Light to moderate amounts with locally heavier expected. Dry weather Saturday. Light to locally moderate rain over northern and eastern areas Sunday. Dry weather Monday.

Episodes of rain Tuesday-Wednesday. Moderate to heavy totals are expected. Dry conditions or just some lingering light rain in the east Thursday. Temperatures variable Friday, near to above normal Saturday, variable Sunday, near to above normal Monday, variable Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, variable Thursday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation near to above normal.

Brazil (Soybeans)

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana

Summary: Dry conditions or just a few light showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered light showers Friday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Saturday-Monday. Mostly dry weather Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures mostly above normal.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias.

Summary: Scattered light showers with locally heavier. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Near daily episodes of scattered to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms during the next 7 days. Rainfall totals during the next 3 days will be light to moderate with locally heavier. Temperatures near to above normal.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires

Summary: Dry conditions or just a few light showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry weather through Monday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.

Moderate to heavy totals are expected. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, variable Thursday.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires

Summary: Dry conditions. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Dry weather Friday-Saturday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Sunday-Tuesday. Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Thursday. Temperatures mostly above normal through Wednesday, variable Thursday.

Mike Palmerino

(SK)

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