DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features troughs over Alaska, the Gulf of Alaska, north-central Canada and eastern Canada. We note a weak ridge over south-central Canada and a stronger ridge over the north-central Atlantic. The southern branch of the jet stream features a trough over California, a ridge over the south-central U.S. and a trough over the northeast U.S. and just off the east coast. The subtropical ridge is centered southwest of Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK (6-10 DAYS):

The U.S. and European models are in fair to good agreement early and again late in the outlook period. I favor a blend between the models during the middle of the period when the differences are enough to make a call. The models both feature a southern branch trough moving across the Rockies and into the southern plains region during the first day or two of the outlook period. The European model wants to lift this trough northward as it moves into the Midwest region during the middle of the period and then into southeast Canada later in the period. The U.S. model shows this trough moving eastward instead of northward and weakening somewhat, then dissipating. The European model has more rain for the Midwest region based off this trough while the U.S. model shows much less rain potential. The models both show a second trough moving over the southern Rockies and heading into the southern plains region late in the outlook period.

The mean maps at 8 to 10 days out continue to feature a southern branch trough over the southern Rockies and the southwestern plains region. A moderate ridge is shown in the eastern Pacific. A weak ridge is indicated in the southeast U.S. This suggests near to above normal rain chances for the southern plains region along with somewhat more variable temperatures. It should also mean near to above normal rainfall for the Delta region with mostly above normal temperatures. As you move north and east from the Delta it become a little more uncertain. I favor near to above normal rainfall for the southern and eastern Midwest region but based on the European model this could also include the northwest Midwest as well. Temperatures near to above normal. The southeast should see above normal temperatures and near to below normal rainfall during this period. The northern branch of the jet stream continues to feature a general west to east flow over southern Canada with near to above normal heights aloft. Troughs within the northern branch of the jet stream are between northeast Canada and Greenland and between the Canadian Maritimes and the northwest Atlantic. This implies mostly above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall for the Canadian Prairies region and the northern plains.

Joel Burgio

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...98 AT PRESIDIO TX

LOW WED...16 BELOW ZERO AT MOUNT WASHINGTON NH

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...SACRAMENTO CA 0.62 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement early and again late in the outlook period. I favor a blend between the models during the middle of the period when the differences are enough to make a call.

The models both feature a southern branch trough moving across the Rockies and into the southern plains region during the first day or two of the outlook period. The European model wants to lift this trough northward as it moves into the Midwest region during the middle of the period and then into southeast Canada later in the period. The US model shows this trough moving eastward instead of northward and weakening somewhat, then dissipating. The European model has more rain for the Midwest region based off this trough while the US model shows much less rain potential. The models both show a second trough moving over the southern Rockies and heading into the southern plains region late in the outlook period.

The mean maps at 8 to 10 days out continue to feature a southern branch trough over the southern Rockies and the southwestern plains region. A moderate ridge is shown in the eastern Pacific. A weak ridge is indicated in the southeast US. This suggests near to above normal rain chances for the southern plains region along with somewhat more variable temperatures. It should also mean near to above normal rainfall for the Delta region with mostly above normal temperatures. As you move north and east from the Delta it become a little more uncertain. I favor near to above normal rainfall for the southern and eastern Midwest region but based on the European model this could also include the northwest Midwest as well. Temperatures near to above normal. The southeast should see above normal temperatures and near to below normal rainfall during this period. The northern branch of the jet stream continues to feature a general west to east flow over southern Canada with near to above normal heights aloft. Troughs within the northern branch of the jet stream are between northeast Canada and Greenland and between the Canadian maritimes and the northwest Atlantic. This implies mostly above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall for the Canadian Prairies region and the northern plains.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

CANADIAN PRAIRIES: No significant precipitation is expected during the 5 day period.

NORTH PLAINS/WEST MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/HOGS): No significant weather to impact livestock or transport during the next 5 days. Precipitation Thursday into Saturday in and around Iowa will be rain.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat/Livestock): There is good chance for more significant rainfall occurring in parts of the plains wheat belt during the next few days. This rain chance may become more widespread during the 6-10 day period. Conditions for winter wheat development are expected to improve.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER): Favorable conditions for developing and filling corn and soybeans in the major growing areas of central Argentina. Some improvement in rainfall in the double crop soybean areas in the south. The sunflower harvest has been delayed by prior rains and may see more delays as rain increases again later in the period.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Mostly 0favorable conditions for second crop corn in central Brazil areas. Generally favorable conditions for filling soybeans in southern Brazil.

EAST MIDWEST/DELTA (WINTER WHEAT): Soil moisture has been recharged this winter after drought conditions in southern areas last fall.

FRANCE/GERMANY (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Generous rains during the first 10 days of March has helped ease concerns for crops that are well ahead of normal development.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Crops will benefit from a warmer period with only scattered shower activity, after prior heavy rains hit the region.

UKRAINE/SOUTH RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Recent warm weather has melted much, if not all, of the protective snow cover and even lead to some greening of crops in southern areas. The crop would be more vulnerable in the event of a turn to colder conditions. Cooler and unsettled weather is likely during the next week or so but it is not expected that this would be cold enough to cause harm to the crop at this stage.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT): A significant rain event spread needed moisture to the winter wheat areas of Pakistan and India late in January. This should supplement irrigation for the crop likely jointing to possibly early reproductive at the time and will be considered favorable. Scattered showers redeveloped in the area again at the end of last week and during the early weekend period.

AUSTRALIA (SORGHUM/COTTON): Recent rainfall and cooler conditions favor late developing crops in the area. Heavier rainfall due to thunderstorms in the area during the past week have been unfavorable for mature summer crops and will likely delay harvesting and may impact quality.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry or with only a little light precipitation during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal through north and east areas, near normal through the southwest.

East: Dry or with only a little light precipitation through extreme southern areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal.

Forecast...

West: Light to locally moderate rain later today or during tonight will favor central and northeast Nebraska, northwest Iowa and southern Minnesota. Showers and thundershowers during Friday and Friday night. Showers may linger in the east during Saturday. Rainfall of 0.30-1.50 inches and locally heavier during this period. Temperatures average above normal today and Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Dry or with only light showers through southern areas Sunday night and early Monday. Drier later Monday. Mainly dry Tuesday. Temperatures average above normal during this period.

East: Mostly dry or with only a little light rain through northwest areas today or more likely tonight. Light to moderate showers or thundershowers develop in western and northern Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan later Friday or during Friday night. Light to moderate showers through the balance of the region during Saturday. Rainfall 0.30-1.50 inches through western and northern Illinois and Wisconsin, 0.10-0.50 inch elsewhere in the region. Temperatures average near normal west and below normal east today, above normal Friday and Saturday.

Light to locally moderate showers east, drier west, during Sunday. Light showers favoring southern and eastern areas Monday. Drier Tuesday. Temperatures average above normal Sunday and Monday, near normal northwest and above normal otherwise Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal. Precipitation should average near to above normal south and east areas, near to below normal northwest.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast: Rain and showers or Thursday, 0.30-1.50 inch and locally heavier, through northeast Colorado, southwest and central Nebraska and from southeast Kansas and east Oklahoma to northeast Texas today or during Friday. Showers, 0.10-0.50 inch, elsewhere in the region during this time. Drier during Saturday.

Temperatures average above to well above normal today, cooler through northwest areas Friday and through much of the region Saturday...through still likely above normal.

Scattered showers favor the east but also possible in some central areas Sunday or Sunday night. Drier during Monday and early Tuesday. Showers and thundershowers redevelop later Tuesday or during Tuesday night and Wednesday.

This activity looks to become at least moderate and possibly moderate to heavy.

Temperatures average above to possibly near normal at times.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period. Rainfall should average near to above normal.

Brazil (Soybeans)

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana

Summary: Mostly dry yesterday. A few very light showers may have occurred during the night. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday.

Forecast: Scattered light showers with locally heavier today. Drier Friday. Dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal during this period.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers Sunday through Tuesday.

Temperatures average near to above normal during this period.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias.

Summary: Scattered thundershowers were indicated in southern Goias during the past 24 hours. Isolated activity otherwise. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast: Daily chances for scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers during the next 5 days. Temperatures average near to above normal.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires

Summary: Scattered showers and thundershowers were indicated in north and east Santa Fe and Entre Rios yesterday. Drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Friday. Dry or with only a few light to locally moderate showers favoring west and north areas Saturday. Temperatures average near normal today, near to above normal Friday and Saturday.

Scattered showers and thundershowers are expected in the region Sunday through Tuesday. Rainfall may become moderate to locally heavy. Temperatures trend cooler.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Friday. Dry or with only a few light showers developing through southwest areas Saturday or Saturday night. Temperatures near to above normal today, above normal Friday and Saturday.

A few light showers may occur Sunday, favoring western areas. Scattered to widely scattered showers Monday. Heavier showers and thunderstorms Tuesday will mainly occur through central and eastern areas of southern Buenos Aires.

Temperatures average above normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday, near to below normal west and near to above normal east Tuesday.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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