DTN Early Word Grains

By Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst

6:00 a.m. CME Globex:

May corn was fractionally lower, May soybeans were 2 cents higher, and July Kansas City (HRW) wheat was fractionally higher.

CME Globex Recap:

Most markets were in the green, higher, again Friday with corn and wheat holding near unchanged from Thursday's close. Soybeans rallied again overnight with contracts near session highs early Friday morning. Energies were higher, except for natural gas after establishing a short-term downtrend earlier in the week. Gold was also green on follow-through buying from Thursday's strong rally. DJIA futures were sitting near unchanged while the U.S. dollar index drifted lower again.

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 15.55 points (0.1%) lower at 20,934.55. The NASDAQ Composite gained 0.71 point to 5,900.76 and the S&P 500 dipped 3.88 points (0.2%) to 2,381.38 Thursday. DJIA futures were unchanged early Thursday morning. Asian markets were mixed with Japan's Nikkei down 68.55 points (0.4%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 21.65 points (0.1%), and China's Shanghai Composite fell 31.49 points (1.0%). European markets were also mixed Friday with London's FTSE 100 adding 2.79 points, Germany's DAX off 12.46 points (0.1%), and France's CAC 40 up 14.78 points (0.3%). The euro was 0.0003 higher at 1.0771 while the U.S. dollar index lost 0.05 to 100.18. June 30-year T-Bonds were 3/32 lower at 147'25 while April gold gained $1.30 to $1,228.50. Crude oil added $0.18 to $48.93 while Brent crude gained $0.17 to $51.91. Dalian soybean futures were lower while Malaysian palm oil futures were higher again overnight.

	BULL		BEAR
1)	Both old and new-crop corn established minor (short-term) uptrends on daily charts Thursday.	1)	The seasonal trend in corn remains down.
2)	Old-crop soybeans also moved to a short-term uptrend following Thursday's rally.	2)	Strong commercial selling continues to be seen in soybeans.
3)	At some point, traders might show some interest in this week's sub-freezing temperatures across major U.S. winter wheat growing areas.	3)	The updated marketing year totals for all wheat shipments continues to run behind USDA's projected pace.

The weekly Newsom on the Market column can be found on subscription sites only. On DTN Pro it is in News/Town Hall and on MyDTN in News/Columns.

MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN How did old-crop May corn follow-up Thursday's bullish signals on its daily chart? By sitting unchanged to lower overnight into Friday morning. Yes, the contract looks to have established a minor (short-term) uptrend with Thursday's sold rally. This allowed daily stochastics (short-term momentum study) to post a bullish crossover, a technical signal indicating a change in trend. The contract tested initial resistance at the 4-day high (Thursday's high) of $3.70 overnight, with a move beyond this point confirmation that the short-term trend has changed course. Fundamentally old-crop corn continues to be driven by strong demand with Thursday's weekly sales and shipment numbers (for the week ending Thursday, March 2) impressive once again. For the record, new-crop Dec corn also established a short-term uptrend with its new 4-day high at $3.88 3/4.

SOYBEANS Old-crop May soybeans seem to be following, or possibly leading (it's hard to tell), old-crop corn as it also established a minor (short-term) uptrend following Thursday's rally. While its daily chart doesn't look as impressive as what's seen in corn, May beans do look to be building a base above its recent low of $9.92. Initial resistance is at the 4-day high of $10.10 1/4, so a period of consolidation would not be surprising. Fundamentally, soybeans have to fight through more commercial pressure than corn, with export demand still seeing its seasonal slowdown. That having been said, total marketing year shipments (as of Thursday, March 2) continue to run ahead of USDA's revised projected pace in its March report. New-crop November did not establish signs of a short-term uptrend, with the technical difference with old-crop hard to see at first. Nevertheless, the contract is also consolidating above its recent low of $9.87 1/2, waiting for its next breakout.

WHEAT It could be said, winter wheat markets were wearing pale green early Friday, with both Chicago and Kansas City contracts posting fractional gains. There is little driving either market at this point, though weather is becoming more of a factor. Given that, winter wheat could see an increase up in interest with the next warmup in forecasted temperatures, particularly for the U.S. Southern Plains. Potential damage from this week's round of sub-freezing lows could be discussed over the weekend, possibly coming into play mid to late next week. Fundamentally, wheat in general remains relatively lackluster with total marketing year shipments continuing to run behind USDA's projected pace.

	DTN Cash	Change From	National	Contract	Change from
Commodity	Index	Prev Day	Avg. Basis	Month	Prev Day
Corn:	$3.26	$0.03	-$0.40	May	$0.007
Soybeans:	$9.24	$0.04	-$0.78	May	$0.004
SRW Wheat:	$3.92	$0.00	-$0.44	May	$0.003
HRW Wheat:	$3.57	$0.03	-$0.93	May	$0.004
HRS Wheat:	$5.07	$0.09	-$0.41	May	$0.015

Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com

Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

(KA)

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