DTN Early Word Grains
Wearing of the Green, a Day Early
May corn was 2 cents higher, May soybeans were 6 cents higher, and July Kansas City (HRW) wheat was 2 cents higher.
CME Globex Recap:Commodities in general were nearly all wearing green early Thursday, the day before St. Patty's Day. Two notables that weren't were canola, after showing good strength recently versus soybeans, and the famed "Widow Maker" natural gas. Gold was sporting a solid double-digit rally, building on its move following Wednesday's interest rate increase by the U.S. Federal Reserve. In fact, most markets moved the opposite direction of what would've been expected and continue in those same trends. The only market showing different was the U.S. dollar index, recovering a small part of its Wednesday sell-off.
OUTSIDE MARKETS:The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 112.73 points (0.5%) higher at 20,950.10. The NASDAQ Composite gained 43.23 points (0.7%) to 5,900.05 and the S&P 500 rallied 19.81 points (0.8%) to 2,385.26 Wednesday. DJIA futures were 69 points higher early Thursday morning. Asian markets were higher with Japan's Nikkei up 12.76 points, Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 495.43 points (2.1%), and China's Shanghai Composite rallied 27.18 points (0.8%). European markets were also higher Thursday with London's FTSE 100 gaining 71.51 points (1.0%), Germany's DAX adding 118.89 points (1.0%), and France's CAC 40 rallying 41.92 points (0.8%). The euro was 0.0013 lower at 1.0721 while the U.S. dollar index added 0.07 to 100.61. June 30-year T-Bonds were 18/32 lower at 147'23 while April gold gained $23.50 to $1,224.20. Crude oil rallied $0.43 to $49.29 while Brent crude added $0.48 to $52.29. Dalian soybean futures were lower while Malaysian palm oil futures were higher again overnight.
P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
| BULL | BEAR | ||
| 1) | Weekly export sales and shipments of corn are expected to be strong again in Thursday's report. | 1) | The seasonal trend in corn remains down. |
| 2) | Old-crop soybeans are nearing the end of a short-term downtrend on daily charts. | 2) | Strong commercial selling continues to be seen in soybeans. |
| 3) | Recent sub-freezing temperatures could spark at least light buying interest in winter wheat markets. | 3) | The updated marketing year totals for all wheat shipments is expected to still be behind USDA's projected pace. |
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MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTSCORN Old-crop May corn continues to hint at a possible move from a minor (short-term) downtrend to uptrend on its daily chart, though no clear technical confirmation has occurred to this point. The previous two sessions have seen the contract post solid rallies early before giving back most of the gains by the close. Overnight into Thursday saw May corn again trading higher, nearing resistance at its 4-day high of $3.67 3/4 (overnight high of $3.66 1/2). While traders are expecting another round of bullish weekly export sales and shipment numbers in Thursday's report (for the week ending Thursday, March 9), it may not spark much additional buying enthusiasm. As for new-crop December, it too is nearing a short-term move to an uptrend on its daily chart.
SOYBEANS Similar to old-crop corn, May soybeans have all but confirmed a move to a short-term uptrend on its daily chart. Clearing technical resistance at its 4-day high of $10.12 3/4 would be a step in that direction, but may be unreachable given the contract was already up 8 cents overnight to $10.06 1/2. Pressure from renewed commercial selling could start to build, with Thursday's weekly export shipment number (for the week ending Thursday, March 9) expected to show a continued seasonal slowdown in demand. However, export sales should remain strong. A concern for the old-crop market is that the carry in the May-to-July spread has strengthened to 10 cents, nearing a bearish level of full commercial carry. As for new-crop November, it too is on the threshold of establishing a short-term uptrend on its daily chart.
WHEAT Winter wheat markets were higher again early Thursday, as whispers of concern continue to linger in the air regarding recent rounds of sub-freezing temperatures across the U.S. Midwest (SRW) and Southern Plains (HRW) growing areas. It's interesting though that commercial buying has not been seen in Kansas City new-crop spreads, or at least not to the degree that might be expected. Overnight trade is thin enough to skew spreads, so more attention will be paid to activity as Wednesday progresses. Weekly export sales and shipments (for the week ending Thursday, March 9) for all wheat are expected to be neutral at best, remaining behind USDA's projected pace.
| DTN Cash | Change From | National | Contract | Change from | |
| Commodity | Index | Prev Day | Avg. Basis | Month | Prev Day |
| Corn: | $3.23 | $0.01 | -$0.41 | May | $0.002 |
| Soybeans: | $9.20 | -$0.01 | -$0.78 | May | $0.005 |
| SRW Wheat: | $3.92 | $0.06 | -$0.44 | May | $0.008 |
| HRW Wheat: | $3.54 | $0.05 | -$0.93 | May | $0.003 |
| HRS Wheat: | $4.98 | $0.08 | -$0.43 | May | -$0.001 |
Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com
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