Market Impact Weather

Eastern Midwest Chill

Bryce Anderson , DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst

OMAHA (DTN) -- Cold temperatures possibly affecting winter wheat in the eastern Midwest and continued favorable conditions over South America are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

VARIABLE MIDWEST TEMPERATURES

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a mixed temperature trend in the Midwest through the coming weekend. Western areas will have notably warmer conditions, with improvement in field work conditions ahead of spring planting. Eastern areas will be slower to warm up, with the result being continued slowdowns in field work.

STRESSFUL SOUTHERN PLAINS DRYNESS

Southern Plains wheat areas continue with a stressful drought pattern. Soil moisture is decreasing, with the result being an increase in the risk to wheat, especially during periods of very warm weather. Very warm to hot conditions are in store the next five days, with daytime highs reaching the low 90s Fahrenheit (33 Celsius). Meanwhile, chances for meaningful rainfall in the region remain low during the next week. After that, there is some chance for significant precipitation to occur, but this chance is uncertain.

MILD NORTHERN PATTERN

Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies crop areas will have a generally mild trend through the next five days. A round of light precipitation is expected, but does not appear to be heavy enough to bring on any new flood threat.

COLD CONCERN IN DELTA

Hard freeze conditions remain in effect in the southern Midwest through the northern Delta and southeastern U.S., stretching as far south as northern Florida. The concern is that crops that are ahead of normal development due to very warm February and early March weather would be affected, especially fruit trees in bloom but also other crops well ahead of normal development, including soft red winter wheat.

DRY PATTERN IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

The Canadian Prairies will be mainly dry over the next five days. This pattern will allow for some slight easing of flood risk in eastern areas.

BENEFICIAL BRAZIL TREND

Across Brazil, conditions are favorable for second-crop corn (safrinha) in central areas. Meanwhile, generally favorable conditions for filling soybeans are in effect in southern Brazil.

MILD IN ARGENTINA

Central Argentina continues with favorable conditions for developing and filling corn and soybeans. Some improvement in rainfall has also been noted in the double crop soybean areas in the south.

FAVORABLE EUROPE RAINFALL

In Europe, generous rains during the first 10 days of March have improved soil moisture for winter grains that are well ahead of normal development.

UKRAINE SHOWERS

Rain showers have occurred this week in Ukraine and Russia wheat areas. This occurrence offers additional moisture for crops. There is still the potential for damage in the event of a cold snap, due to early post-dormancy development and the melting of snow cover.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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