Market Impact Weather

More Southern Plains Dryness

Bryce Anderson , DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst

OMAHA (DTN) -- Dominant dryness concerns in the Southern Plains, and a lighter rain pattern in central Brazil than noted recently, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Monday.

HEAVY EASTERN MIDWEST RAIN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for showers and thunderstorms to cross the eastern and southern Midwest during the first half of this week. Precipitation totals will be moderate to heavy, especially in the eastern Midwest. Rain will boost soil moisture for crops; however, some disruption to early spring fieldwork is likely as well. Western Midwest areas will have a drier trend.

SOUTHERN PLAINS DRYNESS CONCERNS

Dry conditions again dominate the Southern Plains 10-day forecast. Dryness is causing more concern due to winter wheat entering its post-dormancy phase almost a month ahead of normal. Temperatures will be well-above normal also, adding to the soil moisture loss issues.

NEW NORTHERN PLAINS STORM

Across the Northern Plains, a strong storm is expected to produce high winds and heavy snow from portions of North Dakota northward into Manitoba in Canada. This is likely to affect travel and transport in the area and may increase stress to livestock. However, temperatures do not exhibit a very low trend, so this should help mitigate stress to livestock.

LIGHTER CENTRAL BRAZIL RAIN

Across Brazil, light showers are indicated for central and northern areas this week. This will favor soybean harvest progress along with easing transportation disruption, and allow for continued planting progress of the winter corn (safrinha) crop. Southern Brazil will have locally heavy rainfall with some harvest delays; however, this sector of Brazil has had favorable harvest conditions recently.

CENTRAL ARGENTINA SHOWERS

Argentina will have light to locally-moderate rainfall in the central crop areas this week. The recent weather pattern have been overall favorable for developing and filling corn and soybeans in the central areas. Some improvement in rainfall has also been noted in the double crop soybean areas in the south.

EARLY RUSSIA SPRING

In Russia and Ukraine, recent warm weather has melted much of the protective snow cover and even led to some greening of crops in extreme south areas. This early warming places winter wheat in a more vulnerable situation for damage in the event of a cold snap. The 10-day forecast features continued warming, which will likely push crop development even further ahead of normal.

GENEROUS EUROPE RAINFALL

Western Europe has seen moderate to locally-heavy rainfall throughout major crop areas during the past week. This has helped to ease concerns that had been building following an otherwise drier winter period. Crop development likely remains well ahead of normal for the date in France.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

(ES)