Market Impact Weather

Brazil Rain Delays

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Rain causing harvest disruptions in Brazil, and warm and dry conditions across the southwestern plains wheat areas, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

WIDESPREAD MIDWEST RAIN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for showers and thunderstorms to cross the majority of the Midwest during the first half of this week. Precipitation totals will be moderate to heavy, especially in the eastern Midwest. Rain will boost soil moisture for crops; however, some disruption to early spring fieldwork is likely as well. A drier pattern is suggested in the 10-day forecast.

CONTINUED SOUTHERN PLAINS DRYNESS

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In the southern Plains, dry conditions remain in effect through the next week to 10 days. Soil moisture is still at adequate levels following midwinter precipitation; however, very warm, dry and windy conditions are evaporating moisture in the top layers of soil. Winter wheat conditions in the southwestern plains are some 15 percentage points lower than a year ago. February temperatures in key wheat areas of Kansas have averaged around 8 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.

MILDER NORTHERN PLAINS TREND

Across the Northern Plains, a drier and warmer pattern is indicated in the next five days. This combination will be favorable for livestock, especially beef cow herds during spring calving season. A drier trend will also be favorable for conditioning soils ahead of spring fieldwork.

RAIN DISRUPTS BRAZIL TRANSPORT

Brazil's primary crop areas continue with widespread moderate to heavy rainfall in the forecast this week. This is a beneficial forecast for soil moisture for the safrinha (winter) corn crop, now reportedly well into the final stages of planting in Mato Grosso. However, the rain will cause disruption to soybean harvest. In addition, extensive disruptions and delays in the transport of harvested soybeans to export ports is developing. This problem is likely to continue with additional rain.

FAVORABLE ARGENTINA CONDITIONS

Argentina continues with a generally favorable outlook for late-season crop conditions. Mild weather and only light precipitation are beneficial for filling crops in the major growing areas. Some improvement in rainfall in the double crop soybean areas in the south has also boosted crop prospects.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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