Market Impact Weather

Favorable Trend Across Brazil

Bryce Anderson , DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst

OMAHA (DTN) -- Beneficial conditions across Brazil's major crop areas, and possible delays to spring fieldwork in the western Midwest due to heavy snow, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

VARIED LATE-WINTER MIDWEST STORM CONDITIONS

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a wide variety of conditions in the Midwest from a late-winter storm system crossing the region. Moderate to locally heavy snow, which has occurred in the northern and northwestern Midwest, will cause significant short-term transport disruptions along with livestock stress. The moisture will delay early season fieldwork. Farther south and east, the eastern Midwest has a high chance for severe weather with locally heavy rain, strong winds, and possible tornadoes. Rain would benefit soil moisture in the southeastern Midwest, where recent abnormally-dry conditions have developed.

STRESSFUL NORTHERN PLAINS SNOW

Portions of the Northern Plains have stressful conditions for livestock and transportation following heavy snow and strong winds. The greatest impact is from southeastern Wyoming through western Nebraska, where snow totals of close to 2 feet occurred Thursday. The snow is a notable threat to conditions for spring calving in beef cow herds.

DRY FORECAST IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, a dry pattern is in store through the next seven days. Soil moisture is still adequate for wheat in the top portion of the soil profile; however, long-term drought is still noted in deeper levels of the profile. This points to a need for additional precipitation during spring as wheat exits dormancy. Colder weather at the end of the week does not appear to be harsh enough to threaten the crop, even after recent well-above-normal warmth.

FAVORABLE PATTERN ACROSS BRAZIL

Favorable conditions for maturing and harvesting soybeans in central Brazil and for filling soybeans in southern Brazil remain in effect. There are also favorable conditions for planting and developing second-crop (safrinha) corn in west-central Brazil (Mato Grosso).

MINIMAL ARGENTINA HEAT IMPACT

In Argentina, a hotter weather pattern is in store through the weekend. However, this round of heat is not overly concerning for developing crops, especially after recent heavy rainfall. Southern areas that have been hot at times this week should see more-moderate temperatures and a chance for showers during the weekend and early next week.

NON-THREATENING RUSSIA TREND

Wheat in Russia and Ukraine continues with non-threatening late-winter conditions. Prior cold weather occurred during periods when snow cover should have protected the crop from damage.

HEAT AND DRYNESS IN AUSTRALIA

Extreme heat and dryness have reportedly increased the risk to non-irrigated sorghum in Australia's New South Wales and southern Queensland states. There has also been some increase in stress to irrigated cotton due to episodes of extreme heat and dryness during the mid-summer period. Scattered light-to-moderate showers and thundershowers during the past four-day weekend brought slight improvement to sorghum along with cotton; however, more rain is needed to remedy the dryness and heat impact.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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