DTN Early Word Grains
Grains Quietly Lower as Weather Cooperates
March corn was down 3/4 cent, March soybeans were down 2 3/4 cents, and March Chicago wheat was down 1 1/4 cents.
CME Globex Recap:All three grains were quietly lower early Wednesday with South America's forecast giving traders no reason for concern while Brazil's harvest continues to make progress. The U.S. dollar index is up 0.26, also exerting a slight bearish influence on grain prices.
OUTSIDE MARKETS:The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 92.25 points at 20,504.41. The NASDAQ Composite was up 18.61 points at 5,782.57 and the S&P 500 was up 9.33 points at 2,337.58 Tuesday. DJIA futures were up 17 points early Wednesday morning. Asian markets were mostly higher with Japan's Nikkei up 199 points (1.0%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 291.86 points (1.2%), and China's Shanghai Composite down 4.94 points (-0.15%). European markets were higher Wednesday with London's FTSE 100 up 33.05 points (0.45%), Germany's DAX up 41.60 points (0.35%), and France's CAC 40 up 22.04 points (0.45%). The U.S. dollar index was up 0.26 at 101.49 while the euro was down 0.00270 at 1.05560. March 30-year T-Bonds were down 7/32nds at 150'13 while April gold was up $1.50 at $1,226.80. March crude oil was down $0.28 at $52.92 while Brent crude was down $0.20 at $55.77. Soybeans at the Dalian Exchange are lower overnight and Malaysian palm oil futures were up 0.6%.
| BULL | BEAR | ||
| 1) | Corn, soybeans, and wheat are all trending higher. | 1) | Increased corn and soybean production from South America is widely anticipated in early 2017 with Brazil's soybean harvest making good progress. |
| 2) | U.S. corn shipments are up 67% in 2016-17 from a year ago. | 2) | It is still not clear how trade relations will change with China and others -- or how those countries might retaliate. |
| 3) | Warm temperatures are expected to return to the southwestern Plains later this week, enticing winter crops out of dormancy at an early date. | 3) | U.S. wheat supplies remain burdensome. |
The weekly Newsom on the Market column can be found on subscription sites only. On DTN Pro it is in News/Town Hall and on MyDTN in News/Columns.
MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTSCORN March corn was down 3/4 cent early Wednesday and you probably won't be surprised to hear me say corn had a quiet overnight session. After all, it is still February, a time of year when grains are not known for making big moves. Since the calendar flipped to 2017 however, March corn prices have been inching higher, still benefitting from last year's lack of corn in Brazil. Here in mid-February, FOB corn prices are over 30 cents a bushel cheaper in the U.S. than in Brazil which means that U.S. corn prices should continue to find good support as we head towards spring and may be able to maintain their gradual up-trend.
SOYBEANS March soybeans were down 2 3/4 cents early Wednesday, a quiet start with a little follow-through from Tuesday's selling. With harvest going well in Brazil and no significant weather threats in this week's forecast, this is typically the time of year when we see Brazil's export business increase and U.S. exports decrease. So far however, FOB soybean prices are roughly equal between the two countries and Brazil's soybean prices are holding sideways, well above their January low. This is a bit odd for harvest time price behavior and helps to explain why March soybeans are able to maintain a gradual uptrend, so far.
WHEAT March Chicago wheat was down 1 1/4 cents, also keeping a quiet tone early. Tuesday's new 35.0 mmt crop estimate from Australia and rain around Texas set prices back from their five-month high, but not much. DTN's seven-day forecast is mostly dry the next three days with a return of rain to Texas this weekend and early next week. Temperatures will be back in the 70s as far north as Kansas starting Thursday. As pleasant as that sounds, it's a little unnerving for winter wheat crops to come out of dormancy this early in the season and may become a problem later. In the meantime, March Chicago wheat has had a decent correction from its December lows and is maintaining its up-trend early in 2017.
| DTN Cash | Change From | National | Contract | Change from | |
| Commodity | Index | Prev Day | Avg. Basis | Month | Prev Day |
| Corn: | $3.37 | -$0.01 | -$0.37 | Mar | $0.002 |
| Soybeans: | $9.71 | -$0.08 | -$0.74 | Mar | $0.011 |
| SRW Wheat: | $4.13 | -$0.03 | -$0.37 | Mar | $0.000 |
| HRW Wheat: | $3.74 | -$0.01 | -$0.91 | Mar | $0.001 |
| HRS Wheat: | $5.28 | -$0.03 | -$0.40 | May | -$0.002 |
Todd Hultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com
Toddcan be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\ToddHultman1
(BAS)
Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]