Market Impact Weather

Milder Argentina Forecast

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst
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OMAHA (DTN) -- A mild temperature and precipitation forecast for Argentina, and favorable conditions in major crop areas of Brazil, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Monday.

SEASONAL MIDWEST CONDITIONS

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for seasonal temperatures with very little precipitation in the Midwest this week. There are no significant concerns for the soft red winter wheat crop at this time.

FAVORABLE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOISTURE

In the Southern Plains, recent moderate to heavy precipitation will recharge soil moisture that will benefit the wheat crop in the spring when it breaks dormancy. There are no significant concerns for livestock in the feedlots at this time.

BENIGN NORTHERN PLAINS FORECAST

In the Northern Plains, there are no significant concerns for the region during the next seven days.

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CROP-FRIENDLY BRAZIL CONDITIONS

Favorable conditions for maturing and harvesting soybeans are in effect in central Brazil and for filling soybeans and early harvest in southern Brazil. Soil moisture is also in good supply for planting double-cropped corn behind soybeans in central Brazil. Meanwhile, hot and dry conditions continue to affect soybean prospects in the minor northeast growing area (Bahia).

SEASONAL ARGENTINA PATTERN

A return to more seasonal temperatures and some increase in shower activity for the central Argentina growing belt during this week should help maintain current yield prospects for corn and soybeans in these locations. Southern growing areas, mainly La Pampa and western Buenos Aires, continue to experience episodes of high heat which is likely to affect production of double cropped soybeans, and possibly some corn and sunflower as well.

COLD CONCERN IN EUROPE

Across Europe, winter cold weather is reported to have caused problems for unprotected winter grains in and around Hungary. Very cold conditions, relative to normal, may have also affected specialty crops such as olives and citrus in the south Italy, Greece and east Mediterranean region. Western Europe should be warmer early this week while the east remains colder, but it should not be as cold as the earlier cold events have been.

NO DAMAGE FROM RUSSIA COLD

Temperatures fell to near zero Fahrenheit (minus 18 Celsius) in south Russia and portions of North Caucasus Russia during the weekend. However, the cold snap was probably not severe enough to cause significant damage to a crop that is somewhat protected by snow cover. It has been much colder than this in portions of the Black Soils Region, the Central Region and the Volga valley but in most cases a deep snow cover will protect winter grains in these locations.

BENEFICIAL INDIA RAINFALL

Moderate to heavy rain brought moisture to the winter wheat areas of Pakistan and India last week. This should supplement irrigation for the crop likely jointing to possibly early reproductive at this time and will be considered highly favorable.

NORTH AFRICA RAIN

Wheat areas of northern Africa, notably Morocco, have seen mostly above-normal rainfall during January. This is favorable for the wheat crop as it moves into its latter development and reproductive phases.

FAVORABLE SOUTH AFRICA PATTERN

South Africa crops will continue to benefit from periodic scattered thunderstorms and no lasting hot weather.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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