DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn closed down 1 1/4 cents in the March contract and down 1 1/2 cents in the December. Soybeans closed down 1/4 cent in the March and up 2 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 6 1/2 cents in the March Chicago, down 6 cents in the March Kansas City, and down 6 3/4 cents in the March Minneapolis.

The March U.S. dollar index is up 0.21 at 100.58. February gold is down $0.90 at $1,188.90 while March silver is up $0.30 and March copper is up $0.0165. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 18 at 20,083. March crude oil is down $0.90 at $52.88. March heating oil is down $0.0309, March RBOB gasoline is down $0.0203, and March natural gas is up $0.001.

For the week:

March corn closed down 7 1/4 cents while December closed down 6 1/2 cents. March soybeans were down 18 1/4 cents while the November was down 3 1/2 cents. March Chicago wheat was down 7 3/4 cents, March Kansas City wheat was down 8 3/4 cents, and March Minneapolis wheat was down 8 1/2 cents.

Corn:

March corn closed down 1 1/4 cents Friday on another day of light trading volume. The contract was down 7 1/4 cents on the week after finding resistance Tuesday a new, but brief six-month high of $3.71. A second week of sunshine and dry weather helped Argentina partially recover from the excess rains of mid-January and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported corn planting has nearly reached its estimate of 12.1 million acres (4.9 million hectares). In Brazil, crop conditions remain mostly favorable with a steady flow of showers continuing across central Brazil. Here in the U.S., export demand continues to be good and last week's pace of ethanol production stayed near a record high. The main bearish risk for corn is South America's next crops, but so far, March corn continues to trend gradually higher. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.28 Thursday, priced 36 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in six months. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is up 0.21, holding firm even after the U.S. Commerce Department said real GDP was up 1.6% in 2016, not supporting much of an argument for higher interest rates.

Soybeans:

March soybeans closed down a quarter cent Friday on light volume and were down 18 1/4 cents on the week. Soybean prices kept their composure pretty well, despite the fact that the U.S. withdrew from the Trans Pacific Partnership, and angered Mexico with the mention of a possible import tax. Or I should say that so far they have, because there are more trade changes to come, which will eventually include China -- now on a one-week vacation to celebrate its New Year. On Thursday, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated Argentina's soybean crop at 53.5 million metric tons, citing crop stress in 7% of the national planted area. That is down from USDA's estimate of 57.0 mmt and not overly bullish for prices if problems don't grow larger. With Brazil's record soybean crop headed to ports, soybean prices remain under bearish pressure, but have been able to maintain their uptrend so far. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.73 Thursday, priced 77 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in six months.

Wheat:

March Chicago wheat closed down 6 1/2 cents Friday and was down 7 3/4 cents on the week as the rally, which began after Christmas, showed signs of losing steam. Thursday's news of a marketing year high in wheat's weekly export sales was the bullish highlight of the week, but was not enough to hold prices near their three-month high. Even though this week's price action was bearish, Chicago wheat is still cheap enough that downside risk should be limited and a continuation of a sideways trading range seems the most likely path forward. DTN's seven-day forecast remains dry for the southwestern Plains and there may be some problems noted this spring, but it is still too early for traders to show any concern. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.89 Thursday, priced 39 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in five months. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $3.47, down from its highest price in six months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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