Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Mainly favorable conditions in Brazil, hot and dry weather for Argentina, and a drier trend for the Midwest and Plains are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

COLDER NEXT WEEK FOR NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for no significant concerns for the Northern Plains and western Midwest region during the next five to seven days. Beyond that period, it may turn colder, and much colder late in the 10-day or early in the 11- to 15-day period.

For the eastern Midwest, no significant concerns for the soft red winter wheat crop at this time.

RECENT MOISTURE HELPS SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, the recent very significant precipitation event will recharge soil moisture, which will benefit the wheat crop in the spring when it breaks dormancy. There are no significant concerns for livestock in the feedlots at this time.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN BRAZIL

Scattered thunderstorms in central Brazil crop areas may improve the outlook for second-crop corn, but the rain will also delay the harvest of early soybeans and early corn. Mostly favorable conditions are in effect for crops in southern Brazil at this time.

ARGENTINA HEAT AND DRYNESS

In Argentina, an upper-level ridge in and near the region looks to promote below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures in the primary corn and soybean areas for another six days. This will increase stress to crops, especially any reproductive corn in the area. The ridge is expected to break down later in the 10-day period, which should allow for more seasonal temperatures and a return to scattered thundershowers. If real, this should limit the potential for reductions in yield potential due to the heat. Production may still decline due to prior flooding rains reducing acreage. Also prior and forecasted heat in La Pampa and western Buenos Aires is likely to reduce yield potential in these locations.

DECREASING UKRAINE SNOW COVER

Subzero (Fahrenheit) cold weather was reported in winter wheat areas of Belarus and western Ukraine earlier this month, but it has warmed since then. Snow cover was of a light to locally moderate nature at the time of the coldest weather. This should have given some protection from the cold conditions. Since then, snow cover has improved further and the crop should be well-protected in the event of any new cold outbreaks.

COLD CONDITIONS IN EUROPE

In Europe, winter's cold weather is reported to have caused some problems for unprotected winter grains in and around the Hungary area. Very cold conditions, relative to normal, may have also affected specialty crops such as olives and citrus in the south Italy, Greece and east Mediterranean region. Temperatures remain below normal in many areas, well-below normal through southern Europe. However, it is not as cold as it was earlier this month.

BENEFICIAL SOUTH AFRICA RAINS

Crops in the maize and sugarcane region of South Africa will continue to benefit from periodic scattered thunderstorms and no lasting hot weather.

MOISTURE TO HELP INDIA

A significant rain event is expected to bring needed moisture to the winter wheat areas of Pakistan and India this week. This should supplement irrigation for the crop likely jointing to possibly at the early reproductive stage at this time and is considered highly favorable.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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