USDA Reports Flash

USDA Cuts Crop Production

USDA released its latest Crop Production, Crop Production Annual Summary, Quarterly Grain Stocks, Winter Wheat Seedings and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports Thursday. (Logo courtesy of USDA)

WASHINGTON (DTN) -- USDA cut corn and soybean production based on slightly lower yields for 2016-17, leading USDA to also slightly cut the crop year ending stocks for both crops as well.

USDA released the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report, Quarterly Grain Stocks report, annual Crop Production and Winter Wheat Seedings reports Thursday.

USDA's U.S. ending stocks estimates were slightly bullish for corn, bullish for soybeans and neutral to bearish for wheat prices, said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. Global ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn and soybeans and bearish for wheat, he said. Dec. 1 U.S. grain stocks estimates were neutral for corn, soybeans and wheat. The U.S. winter wheat seedings report is a bullish factor for wheat prices, Hultman said.

For DTN's exclusive audio comments on today's reports, visit: http://listen.aghost.net/…

For USDA's full Crop Production, Crop Production Annual Summary, Quarterly Grain Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings reports, visit: http://www.nass.usda.gov/…

For the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, visit: http://www.usda.gov/…

ENDING STOCKS

U.S. corn ending stocks were lowered the 2016-17 to 2.355 billion bushels, down 48 million bushels from last month's estimate. The new ending stocks number was also 41 million bushels lower than the average pre-report estimate by the trade. USDA also raised imports by 5 million bushels, but also raised the corn used for ethanol by 25 million bushels as well.

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Global corn production was lowered 1.8 million metric tons for 2016-17, leading to ending stocks also being lowered 1.27 million metric tons.

Domestic soybean ending stocks were lowered 60 million bushels for 2016-17 to 420 million bushels. USDA simply cited lower production estimates and imports as the reason for the decline. USDA did not change estimated exports, which held fast at a projected 2.05 billion bushels.

Global soybean production was reduced 0.2 million metric tons as increases in Brazil and China were offset by declines in the U.S., Bolivia and Uruguay. Brazil saw a 2 million metric ton boost in production to an estimated 104 million metric tons thanks to beneficial rains.

U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised 43 million bushels to 1.186 billion bushels, the highest ending stocks for wheat since the late 1980s.

CROP PRODUCTION

Corn production for 2016 was estimated at 15.1 billion bushels, down 78 million bushels from last month's estimate. USDA cited lower harvested area and a reduction in the average yield from 175.3 to 174.6 bushels per acre.

USDA also raised the average corn farmgate price by 5 cents to $3.40 a bushel for the year.

Soybean production was also lowered to 4.3 billion bushels, but down 54 million from last month's estimate based on lower yields. USDA pegged soybean yields at 52.1 bushels per acre, down 0.4 bushel per acre.

The farmgate price for soybeans was raised 5 cents a bushel to an average of $9.50 a bushel.

Sorghum production was estimated at 480 million bushels, down 4% from the November forecast and 20% below 2015. USDA cited lower planted acres, even though yield was a record 77.9 bushels per acre, up 1.9 bushels per acre from 2015.

QUARTERLY STOCKS

Quarterly stocks on Dec. 1 for corn came in at 12.384 billion bushels, right in line with pre-report average. Farmers were holding 7.61 billion bushels while off-farm stocks were pegged at 4.77 billion bushels. The September to November "disappearance" or usage was 4.5 billion bushels, up from 4.1 billion bushels over the same period in 2015.

Soybean quarterly stocks were pegged at 2.9 billion bushels, which was 56 million bushels lower than the average pre-report estimate. Soybeans held on the farm totaled 1.34 billion bushels while off-farm stocks were 1.56 billion bushels. Disappearance for September to November totaled 1.61 billion bushels, up 15% from the same period in 2015.

All-wheat stocks on Dec. 1 were pegged at 2.07 billion bushels with on-farm stocks estimated at 571 million bushels and off-farm stocks estimated at 1.5 billion bushels. The September to November usage was 472 million bushels, 34% higher than the same period in 2015.

WINTER WHEAT SEEDING

All-winter wheat planting for the 2017-18 crop came in at 32.4 million acres, which was 1.8 million acres below the pre-report average and 10% below 2016-17 planting.

Hard Red Winter Wheat acres were pegged at 23.3 million acres, down 3.3 million acres from last year and also lower than the pre-report expectations. Soft Red Winter Wheat acres were estimated at 5.7 million acres, down 300,000 acres from 2016-17 as well. White Winter Wheat acres were estimated at 3.4 million acres.

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Editor's Note: Join DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom at 12 p.m. CST on Thursday as he analyzes the wide assortment of government reports out that morning, including the Annual Crop Production Summary, Winter Wheat Seedings, and Quarterly Grain Stocks. Sign up now at: http://bit.ly/…

U.S. CROP PRODUCTION 2016-2017 (million bushels)
Jan. Avg. High Low Dec. 2015-16
Corn 15,148 15,198 15,320 14,999 15,226 13,602
Soybeans 4,307 4,380 4,440 4,339 4,361 3,926
Sorghum 480 463 466 460 462 597
WINTER WHEAT ACREAGE (million acres) 2017-18
Jan. Avg. High Low 2016-17
All Winter 32.4 34.2 36.4 31.7 36.1
Hard Red 23.3 25.1 26.7 22.6 26.6
Soft Red 5.7 5.6 6.6 4.8 6.0
White 3.4 3.5 4.3 3.3 3.5
QUARTERLY STOCKS (billion bushels)
(Report date 1/12/17) 12/1/16 Avg. High Low 9/1/16 12/1/15
Corn 12.384 12.358 12.540 11.760 1.738 11.235
Soybeans 2.895 2.951 3.119 2.785 0.197 2.714
Wheat 2.073 2.044 2.139 1.828 2.527 1.746
Sorghum 0.311 0.370 0.380 0.363 0.037 0.323
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (billion bushels) 2016-2017
Jan. Avg. High Low Dec. 2015-16
Corn 2.355 2.396 2.800 2.206 2.403 1.737
Soybeans 0.420 0.468 0.515 0.430 0.480 0.197
Sorghum 0.038 0.033 0.037 0.290 0.035 0.037
Wheat 1.186 1.148 1.340 1.100 1.143 0.976
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2016-2017
Jan. Avg. High Low Dec. 2015-16
Corn 221.0 221.9 225.0 218.0 222.3 210.0
Soybeans 82.3 82.5 84.8 79.6 82.9 77.2
Wheat 253.3 251.9 254.0 250.2 252.1 240.5
WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons)
2016-17 2015-16
Jan. Dec. Jan. Dec.
Argentina wheat 15.0 14.4 11.3 11.3
Australia wheat 33.0 33.0 24.5 24.5

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