Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Prospects for heavy precipitation in the Southern Plains, and a good chance for rain in northeast Brazil, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

WINTRY MIX FOR MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a wintry mix of rain and freezing precipitation in the eastern and southern Midwest during the next five days. This precipitation will focus on the soft red winter wheat areas. The impact of this moisture will generally be favorable; however, heavy ice accumulation may be stressful to the wheat crop.

HEAVY SOUTHERN PLAINS PRECIPITATION FORECAST

The Southern Plains is likely to see a major precipitation event for the region during this coming weekend. This likely means improving soil moisture for a large portion of the winter wheat belt, including much of Kansas. It also means a high risk for a freezing rain and sleet storm for the major feedlot areas of western Kansas to the Texas Panhandle, increasing stress to livestock. There is also at least some risk that this may change to snow leading to a major snow storm for some in the area.

NEW COLD WAVE FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Across the Northern Plains, a new surge of very cold weather will increase stress to livestock for a couple more days. However, there are no significant transportation concerns in these areas during the next week.

PROMISING NORTHEAST BRAZIL RAIN OUTLOOK

Northeast Brazil, which has had very dry conditions during much of this crop season, has a promising round of rainfall in the forecast through the next five days. This moisture would be useful for soybeans. Other crop areas in Brazil have generally favorable conditions and soil moisture supplies.

DRIER FOR CENTRAL ARGENTINA

In central Argentina, a mostly dry pattern over the next week, with only light precipitation, will be favorable for crop areas recovering from recent very heavy rain and flooding. Southern Argentina, however, will remain dry with stress to crops from a lack of moisture.

VARIABLE EUROPE COLD IMPACT

Across Europe, a recent harsh cold wave is mainly a risk to specialty crops such as citrus and olive trees rather than winter wheat. A major winter snow storm preceded the cold air in the Balkan states with improved snow cover protecting the winter wheat crop. Travel and transportation delays likely were widespread and locally severe at the time.

MINIMAL UKRAINE COLD WAVE STRESS

Subzero-Fahrenheit cold was reported in winter wheat areas of Belarus and western Ukraine during the weekend. Snow cover was of a light to locally moderate nature at the time of the coldest weather. This should have given some protection from the cold conditions. Since than snow cover has improved further, the crop should be well-protected if there are any new cold outbreaks.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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