DTN Closing Grain Comments

By Darin Newsom
DTN Analyst

General Comments:

Corn was up 3 3/4 cents in the March contract and up 3 1/2 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 9 cents in the March contract and down 6 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 1 1/2 cents in the March Chicago contract, down 4 1/2 cents in the March Kansas City, and down 1/2 cent in the March Minneapolis contract.

The March U.S. dollar index is up 0.87 at 103.16. February gold is up $8.70 at $1,160.40 while March silver is up $0.37 and March copper is down $0.0175. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 25 at 19,788. February crude oil is down $1.20 at $52.52. February heating oil is down $0.0403 while February RBOB gasoline is down $0.0384 and February natural gas is down $0.387.

Corn:

March corn closed up 3 3/4 cents at its highest price in two weeks with early support from commercial buyers. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercial traders in corn slightly bullish with 9,854 contracts net long as of Dec. 27. Commercials turned slightly net long for the first time since October, holding 23,003 contracts. This new interest from commercials helps to bolster the outlook for corn demand even as corn exports are gradually slowing ahead of the Jan. 12 Grains Stocks report. Tuesday morning, USDA said 25.1 million bushels of U.S. corn were inspected for export last week, bullish enough to keep total inspections up 79% in 2016-17 from a year ago. March corn continues to trade sideways, between $3.42 and $3.69 while traders wait to learn more about South America's next crops.

DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.15 Friday, priced 37 cents below the March contract and down from its highest prices in five months. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is up 0.87 after China showed increased manufacturing activity in December.

Soybeans:

March soybeans closed down 9 cents Tuesday, back below $10 and at their lowest price in six weeks after the CME Group reported 841 deliveries of January soybean oil, 69 deliveries of January soybean meal, and 100 deliveries of January soybeans early Tuesday. Tuesday's commercial selling and deliveries suggest that soybeans are available and not urgently needed. USDA said Tuesday that 58.0 million bushels of soybeans were inspected for export last week, gradually declining from previous weeks, but still putting total inspections up 18% in 2016-17 from a year ago. Crop conditions in South America are still considered generally favorable with concerns of dryness in northeastern Brazil and southern Argentina. Noncommercial traders seem unfazed with their bullish positions as Friday's CFTC data showed 133,733 contracts net long as of Dec. 27. So far, March soybeans are still holding above support at the November low of $9.84, but the recent downward slide in prices shows bearish concern. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.31 Friday, priced 73 cents below the March contract and trading sideways.

Wheat:

March Chicago wheat ended 1 1/2 cents lower after giving up on early support from light commercial buying and ongoing concerns about dry forecasts for the southwestern Plains. Cold temperatures will also reach the Southern Plains this week and we can add that to the list of concerns that will be checked in early spring. March Chicago wheat is not showing much change and Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercial traders still bearish with 83,796 contracts net short as of Dec. 27. DTN's National HRW Wheat Index however, shows gradually rising prices that just reached a new four-month high on Friday. The fundamental outlook for winter wheat remains bearish, but this more bullish development in cash prices suggests the worst of the selling may be finally easing, at least for a while. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.65 Friday, priced 43 cents below the March contract and up from its lowest cash prices in seven years. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.19, its highest price in four months.

Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com

Follow Darin Newsom on Twitter @DarinNewsom

(BAS)

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