DTN Midday Grain Comments

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures up 32. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 25 points lower. Energies are mostly lower with crude down $0.40. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle lower, and hogs higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $9.20.

CORN

Corn trade is 3 cents lower at midday with trade seeing a fairly quiet 4 cent range so far. The weekly ethanol production report showed little change with production up 1.09%, stocks up .44%, and gasoline demand 3.56% lower, with ethanol futures edging higher post report. So this is a good day for board ethanol production margins. Board carry has narrowed a little bit this week and basis is staying fairly flat. No big surprises or changes are expected on the USDA monthly supply and demand report on Friday morning. Chart support is the $3.52 1/2 to $3.54 1/2 area where we find the 10-day, 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The upper Bolliger band at $3.64 is the first level of resistance with the recent high at $3.68 beyond that.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is 1 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade edging higher due to good commercial demand and export news. Fresh sales were announced to China of 330,000 metric tons and 136,000 to unknown. Meal is $1 to $2 lower and oil is 40 to 50 points higher. The export demand has held up with the futures move above $10 with larger supplies looming over the market with South American weather mixed as we move deeper into the growing season. The 12-15-day forecast was showing some improvement for Argentina. Trade will be watching to see if the strong early week export pace can continue with plenty of activity so far this week. On the January chart the 10-day at $10.40 is now support with resistance at the $10.65 4-month high.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is 1 to 4 cents lower at midday with the dollar and supplies continuing to work against trade. The Minneapolis contract continues to be the leader. Colder temperatures will have to be watched with limited snow cover but moisture has improved for some areas with the recent systems. Drops around zero or lower that can cause winter kill. The demand for protein will continue to be key market mover on spread trade, and the Southern Hemisphere harvest continues to move along well. On the Kansas City March chart support is at the $4.00 1/2 contract low printed this morning, resistance is at the $4.15 10-day moving average which is the lowest major moving average.

David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala

(BAS)

Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.