USDA Reports Flash

By Chris Clayton
DTN Ag Policy Editor
and
Emily Unglesbee
DTN Staff Reporter

WASHINGTON (DTN) -- USDA came out with surprising corn production and yield numbers on Wednesday, bumping production to 15.2 billion bushels by raising the average national yield to 175.3 bushels per acre.

The corn numbers were both on the high-end of the pre-report estimates for this month's crop production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

Soybean production was pegged at 4.36 billion bushels, a record, bumped 2% higher from the October report. Yield was increased to a record 52.5 bushels per acre as well.

The U.S. estimates are bearish for corn and soybeans and neutral for wheat, said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. The world estimates are bearish for corn, soybeans and wheat, he said.

For DTN's exclusive audio comments on today's reports, visit: http://listen.aghost.net/…

Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

The production is the highest on record, if realized, with USDA raising the yield to 175.3 bushels per acre, a 1.9 bushel increase from the October report.

At 15.2 billion bushels, USDA raised the 2016-17 production by 169 million bushels but USDA also raised food, seed and industrial use by 85 million bushel and raised ethanol use by 25 million bushels.

Total U.S. ending stocks for corn were pegged at 2.4 billion bushels, an increase of 83 million bushels from the October report.

Farm gate prices were raised an average of 5 cents a bushel to a range from $3 to $3.60. USDA stated the price increase was based on higher-than-expected observed early season prices.

Globally, the WASDE increased corn production by 4.84 billion bushels with USDA citing an increase in the Ukrainian and Russian corn crops. Corn global ending stocks for the 2016-17 crop were raised by 1.38 billion bushels.

SOYBEANS

At 4.361 billion bushels, USDA raised production for the new crop by 92 million bushels. Still, USDA lowered domestic crushing by 20 million bushels, based on lagging soybean meal sales to export markets. At the same time, USDA bumped up sales of raw soybeans by 25 million bushels to 2.05 billion bushels.

Domestic soybean ending stocks were increased to 480 million bushels, an increase of 85 million bushels from the October report.

In another surprise in the numbers, the WASDE bumped up global soybean ending stocks for 2016-17 by 4.17 million metric tons to 81.53 million metric tons.

Despite the higher production and stocks, USDA bumped up the projected farm gate price by an average of 15 cents a bushel to a range from $8.45 per bushel to $9.95. USDA stated the bump in prices came from reported early season producer prices.

WHEAT

Little was changed in wheat numbers. U.S. production was kept at 2.31 billion bushels and ending stocks were raised by 5 million bushels to 1.14 billion bushels due to lower food uses.

The WASDE raised 2016-17 beginning global wheat stocks by 1.37 million metric tons to 241.03 million metric tons. Global production was increased slightly and exports were lowered. Ending stocks were pegged at 249.23 million metric tons, a bump of roughly 0.86 million metric tons.

U.S. CROP PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2016-17
	Nov	Avg	High	Low	Oct	2015-16
Corn	15,226	15,017	15,228	14,880	15,057	13,601
Soybeans	4,361	4,318	4,386	4,201	4,269	3,926
Grain Sorghum	462	465	471	459	467	597
U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2016-17
	Nov	Avg	High	Low	Oct	2015-16
Corn	175.3	173.0	175.3	171.4	173.4	168.4
Soybeans	52.5	52.0	52.8	50.6	51.4	48.0
U.S. Harvested Acres (Million) 2016-17
	Nov	Avg	High	Low	Oct	2015-16
Corn	86.8	86.8	86.9	86.6	86.8	80.7
Soybeans	83.0	83.0	83.1	82.6	83.0	81.7
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2016-17
	Nov	Avg	High	Low	Oct	2015-16
Corn	2,403	2,291	2,669	2,143	2,320	1,738
Soybeans	480	420	485	365	395	197
Grain Sorghum	40	45	48	42	44	37
Wheat	1,143	1,153	1,400	1,100	1,138	976
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million Metric Tons) 2016-17
	Nov	Avg	High	Low	Oct	2015-16
Corn	218.2	217.2	224.9	214.0	216.8	209.4
Soybeans	81.5	77.4	79.8	74.2	77.4	77.1
Wheat	249.2	247.7	250.4	244.2	248.4	241.0
WORLD PRODUCTION (Million Metric Tons)
		2016-17			2015-16
		Nov	Oct		Nov	Oct
FSU - 12 wheat		131.4	131.4		118.2	117.7
European Union wheat		143.6	143.2		160.0	160.0
China corn		216.0	216.0		224.6	224.6
Brazil corn		83.5	83.5		67.0	67.0
Argentine soybeans		57.0	57.0		56.8	56.8
Brazil soybeans		102.0	102.0		96.5	96.5

(AG)

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