DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a weak ridge over northern Alaska. A trough across northern Canada and a weak ridge over Greenland. This is a warm/hot pattern for western and central Canada, mild in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the Gulf of Alaska and a west to east flow with embedded disturbances across southern Canada and the northern U.S. Strong subtropical high pressure dominates most of the southern US with centers in the southwest U.S. and southwest atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 6 days, fair-poor agreement days 7-10. We are leaning more towards the European model again today. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over Alaska. A trough over northwest and north-central Canada and a ridge over northeast Canada and Greenland. This will be a mild/cool pattern for western Canada, variable central, warm in the east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern Gulf of Alaska. and a west to east flow with embedded disturbances across southern Canada and the northern U.S. Weaker subtropical high pressure will be over the southern U.S. The disturbances embedded within this jet stream will be the focus of scattered showers and thunderstorms. When the northern branch ridging is more dominant the southern branch jet stream will shift further southward. When the subtropical ridging is stronger the southern jet will shift further to the north. This pattern does not support any persistent hot, dry weather for the Midwest or Northern Plains.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Rainfall near to below normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. The southern plains will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, mostly above normal days 6-10. Rainfall near to above normal in the far north and east, near to below normal elsewhere during the next 5 days, mostly below normal days 6-10. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...122 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW MON...27 AT 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GOULD CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL...SPRINGFIELD IL 3.77 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

Tuesday's U.S. and European models are in fair to good agreement during the 6-10 day period, although the U.S. model does have somewhat higher heights aloft over the Midwest region when compared with the European model. I favor today's European model as the U.S. model has been a little too strong with the ridging so far this summer.

The maps feature a mean trough position from the Pacific Northwest to the central Canadian Prairies, a mean ridge over the Midwest and a mean trough over or just east of New England during the 8-10 day period. This is a somewhat warmer period overall but especially west of the Mississippi River and east of the Rockies. The strong jet stream will continue to send disturbances out of the PNW trough, across the Northern Plains and the Canadian Prairies to the Upper Midwest region. Scattered thundershowers moving through the northern areas will also settle southward into the Midwest and the north and east part of the central Plains region, even with somewhat higher heights aloft. There may also be some moisture stuck over the Delta and in the southeast as troughs this time of year are not strong enough to clear this moisture out. This leads to afternoon and evening thundershowers with the strong midsummer sun setting off the activity.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEAN): Mostly favorable conditions for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans during the next 10 days.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Sorghum/Corn/Soybeans): Reproductive to filling summer crops will benefit from a turn to more seasonal temperatures and an increase in scattered shower activity during this week...after last weeks hot, dry weather.

NORTH PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Favorable conditions for reproductive corn and soybeans and filling to maturing spring wheat at this time.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Mostly favorable weather for developing wheat and canola at this time. Less rainfall and warmer temperatures favors crops, after prior heavy rains and hail damage.

DELTA STATES (Soybeans, Corn, Cotton): Increasing shower and thundershower activity and less hot weather during this week. This should favor filling crops.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): There is a slight chance for a few light showers with isolated heavier today. Drier again after today with no significant shower activity expected for at least 7 days and likely for 10 days. Temperatures will cool for a few days time, averaging only in the low 90s, before hotter weather returns to the region.

BRAZIL (COFFEE): No significant cold weather threats or rainfall during the 10 day forecast period.

UKRAINE and RUSSIA (Corn/Sunflower): Extreme heat ended early last week. Since that time scattered showers and cooler temperatures have helped crops recover from the 3-5 day heat wave. South and east Ukraine and south Russia should be drier during the next 6 to 10 days. Temperatures gradually trend warmer and then hotter during this period. This may again increase the risk to corn and sunflower.

FRANCE (Corn/Sunflower): A brief hot spell, highs 97-104F, in southwest and central France ended early last week. Showers and more seasonal temperatures have favored crops since then. A drier trend is likely at this time. This depletes top soil moisture somewhat but after heavy spring rains subsoil moisture remains adequate.

NORTHEAST CHINA (CORN,SOYBEANS): A period of warmer, drier weather during the first part of July increased stress to crops as they entered reproduction.

Since that time the temperatures have been more moderate in nature and showers have increased. Moderate to heavy rains covered southern growing areas at the end of last week. A second heavy rain event developed over south and central growing areas during the past 24 hours. Key soybean areas of the north had scattered thundershowers during the weekend period while yesterday's activity only reached the eastern part of the north belt.

CENTRAL CHINA (CORN,SOYBEAN,COTTON,GROUNDNUTS,RICE): Heavy to very heavy rain and thunderstorms occurred last week. This likely means flooding, possibly severe flooding. This could impact crops, especially cotton and corn crops. The central China region has turned hot and dry during the weekend.

INDIAN MONSOON: Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms returned to the key soybean belt during the weekend period. Groundnut and cotton areas of west-central India should see an increase in rain activity during this week.

The east and south areas of India have seen increasing showers activity during the past week and as a result less very hot weather.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near normal.

EAST: Scattered showers and thundershowers through extreme southern areas during the past 24 hours. Most of the region was dry. Temperatures averaged above normal. Highs yesterday were in the 80s and low 90s.

Forecast...

WEST: Mostly dry today. Chance for thunderstorms late tonight over far west and northwest areas. Scattered light to locally moderate showers favoring north and west areas during Wednesday, east and south locations during Thursday.

Temperatures average near to above normal today, near to below normal tomorrow and Thursday.

A few light showers favor western areas Friday. A few light showers with isolated heavier during Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures average below normal Friday and Saturday, near normal Sunday.

EAST: Light showers with locally heavier will occur near the Ohio river today and Wednesday. Heavier rain or showers through the Ohio river valley during Thursday. The balance of the region should see mostly fair skies today, a few light showers favoring northwest areas tomorrow and scattered light showers favoring western areas Thursday. Temperatures average near to above normal today and Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Scattered light to locally moderate showers Friday, possibly favoring southern and eastern areas. Drier Saturday. Dry or with only a few light showers during Sunday. Temperatures average near to below normal.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above west, near to below normal east. Rainfall should average near to above normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Scattered light showers with isolated heavy thundershowers in eastern Kansas and central Oklahoma yesterday or last night. A few light to locally moderate showers in southeast Colorado. A few light showers in southwest Oklahoma and the southern part of the Texas Panhandle. Temperatures averaged near to below normal north and central areas, above normal south.

Forecast: A few thundershowers are possible over Oklahoma and northeast Texas today and over central Nebraska tonight. A few light showers with locally heavier favor north and east areas tomorrow, northwest, central and southeast areas during Thursday. Temperatures average near to below normal, except possibly above normal in southwest areas.

A few light showers with locally heavier will favor north and east areas Friday and east areas Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures trend somewhat hotter during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period. Rainfall should average near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Northern Plains (Corn, Soybeans, Spring Wheat)

Summary: Mostly dry yesterday. A few small areas of showers developed overnight, mainly in west and south Montana and southeast North Dakota.

Temperatures averaged above normal. Highs averaging 86 to 95F but with some hotter in central and west South Dakota.

Forecast: Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring southern areas today or tonight. A few light showers with locally heavier favor west and south areas during Wednesday and western areas again Thursday. Temperatures average near normal today, below normal tomorrow and Thursday.

Scattered light showers with locally heavier favoring eastern areas Friday through Sunday. Temperatures average below normal Friday, warmer Saturday and Sunday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period. Rainfall should average near to above normal.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

Joel Burgio