Spring Wheat Tour Preview

ROCKVILLE, Md. (DTN) -- Scouts on the 2016 Hard Red Spring Wheat and Durum Tour might come across some empty fields as combines get an early start in the Northern Plains this year.

"It's a very mature wheat crop right now," said David Clough, who farms near Fessenden, North Dakota. "We've seen fields harvested already between here and Fargo."

According to USDA's most recent estimates, just over half of North Dakota's spring wheat crop is changing color, well ahead of the five-year average of 21%. South Dakota's crop was 86% coloring, up from 52% on average.

"I think that the progress of the spring wheat crop is testimony to how warm it's been this year so far," said DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Bryce Anderson. "The Northern Plains' temperatures averaged 5 degrees Fahrenheit above normal for the first six months 2016, and the July pattern has just continued that trend."

The wheat crop has fared well overall, but scouts should expect great variability during their three-day trek across North Dakota, the westernmost counties of Minnesota and the northernmost counties of South Dakota, Clough said.

"Some northeastern parts of the state (of North Dakota) have been flooded out, while down in the southwest, there were reports of wheat being cut for hay," Clough said. According to USDA's crop progress report, North Dakota spring wheat is 73% in good-to-excellent condition, and South Dakota's is just 44% in good-to-excellent condition.

Seventy-three people -- mostly farmers, millers, grain traders and members of the media -- have signed up for the Hard Red Spring Wheat and Durum tour this year, said Ben Handcock, tour organizer and president of the Wheat Quality Council.

The tour will start in Fargo, North Dakota, on Tuesday. Scouts will wind their way through western Minnesota, eastern South Dakota and central North Dakota, before ending the day in Bismarck, North Dakota. On Wednesday, scouts fan out into western and northwestern North Dakota, brushing the Montana and Canada borders, before ending the day in Devils Lake, North Dakota. On Thursday, the tour examines northeastern North Dakota on its way back to Fargo.

The scouts follow the same routes year after year. They stop in wheat and durum fields along the way and note the potential yield, quality and growth stage of the crop. Each evening of the tour, the scouts will gather and submit their yield estimates and a final average yield number for the day will be announced.

The Northern Plains have produced bumper spring wheat crops in recent years, but growers are likely to see more average production this year, Clough predicted. "Wheat may not be the big crop we've gotten used to, but it's still going to be a decent crop," he said.

In its July 12 Crop Production report, USDA forecast that spring wheat production would drop 8% from 2015 to 550 million bushels. Harvested spring wheat acres were also expected to drop 9% to 11.8 million acres. Durum wheat production was pegged at 82.8 million bushels, up less than 1% from 2015, with a predicted 10% rise in harvested acres to 2.08 million.

Clough said yields could range dramatically by region. Predictions of 70- to 80-bushel yields have trickled in from central North Dakota, as well as reports of 15- to 20-bushel wheat down in the southwestern parts of the state. He expects his own crop to average near 50 bushels per acre.

USDA has predicted an average spring wheat yield of 46.5 bushels per acre, nearly the same as last year. Durum yields are expected to average closer to 39.8 bushels, down nearly 4 bushels from last year.

Although the tour can't measure it, many will be focused on protein levels in the spring wheat crop, Handcock said.

The bumper winter wheat crop out of the Southern Plains this year produced very low levels of protein.

The hot, dry weather in the Northern Plains could increase protein levels in the spring wheat crop, which would be a boon for the flour industry, Handcock said. "Hard red spring is used by itself to make artisan breads and hard rolls, but it's a blending wheat for the most part," he said. "They blend it with winter wheat to bring up protein in flour for bakers."

Clough said insects have not been a significant issue for his spring wheat crop this year, but there have been reports of scab problems in the northwestern region of the state.

Follow www.dtnpf.com for daily updates on the progress of the spring wheat tour.

Emily Unglesbee can be reached at Emily.unglesbee@dtn.com

Follow Emily Unglesbee on Twitter @Emily_Unglesbee

(AG/CZ)

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