DTN Daily Basis Comments

Corn, Soy Basis Steady; HRS Wheat Basis 1 Cent Stronger

Mary Kennedy , DTN Basis Analyst
DAILY BASIS:

DTN Cash Change From National Contract Change from
Commodity Index Prev Day Avg. Basis Month Prev Day
Corn: $3.02 -$0.04 -$0.29 Sep $0.004
Soybeans: $9.45 -$0.08 -$0.33 Nov $0.004
SRW Wheat: $3.76 -$0.04 -$0.34 Sep $0.003
HRW Wheat: $3.19 -$0.03 -$0.90 Sep $0.003
HRS Wheat: $4.34 -$0.01 -$0.52 Sep $0.006

CORN:

The DTN National Corn Index for Thursday indicates a national average basis of 29 cents under the Chicago September futures contract, unchanged from Wednesday's basis. Corn moved lower Thursday as current weather is helping corn growth head on a path to higher-than-expected yields. And with the near-stellar conditions reported Monday, it is likely we may reach as high as 170 bpa, according to market chatter. Thursday's USDA week's export sales and shipments report was partially bearish for corn as last week's numbers appear to indicate corn may not reach its estimated exports of 1.9 billion bushels for the current crop year, which is over at end of August. Not much change in the basis, but it does have a firm tone to it as some ethanol plants are pushing a little for cash corn. If you look at today's DTN cash index of $3.02, there's no need to explain why farmers aren't selling anything right now.

SOYBEANS:

The DTN National Soybean Index for Thursday indicates a national average basis of 33 cents under the Chicago November futures contract, unchanged from Wednesday's basis. Soybeans were lower as DTN is forecasting favorable growing conditions for the six- to 10-day period in the Midwest and Northern Plains, which will benefit soybeans in their critical podding stage. It's starting to look like we say a large soybean crop this fall barring any hail and severe storms. Weekly export net sales of 676,800 metric tons reported by USDA Thursday were bearish as analysts were expecting 800,000 to 1.5 million metric tons. Basis is steady and actually pretty quiet Friday, but right now farmers are looking at the cheap flat price and are still unwilling to sell anything.

SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT:

The DTN National Soft Red Winter Wheat Index for Thursday indicates a national average basis of 34 cents under the Chicago September futures, 1 cent stronger than Wednesday's basis.

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT:

The DTN National Hard Red Winter Wheat Index for Thursday indicates a national average basis of 90 cents under the Kansas City September futures contract, unchanged from Wednesday's basis. Basis was unchanged as mills are looking for mid-12 protein and higher to come to market. The spot KC spread from mid-12 protein down to 11 protein is 75 cents and $1 from mid-12 protein to ords. Export sales were a bright spot coming in at 506,000 metric tons with HRW the winner at 324,000 metric tons.

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT:

The DTN National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index for Thursday indicates a national average basis of 52 cents under the Minneapolis September futures contract, 1 cent stronger than Wednesday's basis. The Minneapolis spot HRS wheat cash market closed as follows, basis the Minneapolis September futures contract for #1 milling quality: 12% proteins were not quoted; 13% proteins were at +60; 13.5% proteins were not quoted; 14% proteins were nominally up 5 cents to up 20 cents at +70 to +90; 14.5% proteins were nominally unchanged to up 10 cents at +80N to +90 and 15% proteins were unchanged to up 5 cents at +115 to +120. Receipts were 64 cars, which included zero trains. Wheat on the MGEX floor is traded delivered Chicago/beyond. The 2016 Hard Spring Wheat and Durum Tour ended with a weighted average spring wheat yield of 45.5 bpa, down from 49.5 bpa last year and scouts reported they found an average-sized crop in decent condition this year.

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

Follow Mary Kennedy on Twitter @MaryCKenn

(ES)

Mary Kennedy

Mary Kennedy
Connect with Mary: