2016 HRW Wheat Tour - Day 1

By Pam Smith
DTN Progressive Farmer Crops Technology Editor

COLBY, Kan. (DTN) -- There's no place like Kansas to see wheat, and scouts gathered for the annual Wheat Quality Council's Hard Red Winter Wheat Tour found plenty to like during their first day. The average first day estimate came in 47.2 bushels per acre. That's a hefty increase from last year's first day average of 34.3 bpa and stands as the highest first day since the 53.4 bpa estimate in 2012.

Scouts fanned out across the northern half of the state with some routes slipping slightly into Nebraska. The tour drives the same routes between Manhattan and Colby each year.

Scouts following routes through central and north-central Kansas found a more mature crop than normal. Much of the wheat was fully headed and some beginning to flower. That makes calculations easier, but diseases were beginning to pressure some of those fields. The May 2 USDA Crop Progress report pegged 49% of the Kansas winter wheat crop headed compared to 34% last year and a 28% five-year average.

Wheat was slightly further behind in western Kansas, but was still heavily tillered. "There's a question of how many of those tillers will produce, but there are still many more than we normally see," said Ben Handcock, who organizes the tour each year. Soil moisture was considered adequate in most of the spots sampled during this first day. The most recent crop progress report put Kansas winter wheat condition at 46% good and 6% excellent.

Bryan Boroughs, an agronomist with Servi-Tech Inc., Cimarron, Kansas, noted moisture was adequate enough that it was difficult to tell the irrigated areas from dryland corners. In fact, irrigation units appeared to have little action so far this year.

"We saw some variation in agronomic conditions in fields and it was easy to detect where farmers had taken steps to manage nitrogen fertility and control weeds such as mustard," said Boroughs. Fields that were mostly free of disease may have been treated with preventative fungicides or have more varietal tolerances, but there were definitely differences from field to field.

Some aphids were found and evidence of the presence of Barley Yellow Dwarf virus. Ladybugs were working hard to clean up aphids in several fields. A few fields showed evidence of being drought stressed early and there was some freeze damage detected in fields around Manhattan.

Planes sprayed overhead in many areas of central and western parts of the state. Farmers on the tour noted that fungicide applications for stripe rust are more common in Kansas this year because growers saw big differences in yield (up to 40 bushels) last year when the disease hit hard. Head scab doesn't show up until the flowering stage, so agronomists urged growers to scout soon for that disease. Scouts are not likely to see much head scab during this tour due to later onset of the disease.

Local farmers joined scouts in Colby tonight to hear reports of the findings. There were 306 samples pulled over the 22 routes with individual field estimated yield averages ranging from a low of 21 bpa to a high of 93 bpa.

Industry representatives from Nebraska and Colorado also gave assessments of that wheat crop. Nebraska, which planted 1.28 million acres of winter wheat, is estimated to produce 55 bpa or 70.4 million bushels compared to 45.9 million bushels produced last year. Crop progress reports indicated Nebraska's wheat crop condition is 50% good and 11% excellent.

Colorado wheat industry representatives estimated an average yield of 39 bpa and 2.2 million acres planted (2 million acres estimated harvest) is expected to product a 78-million-bushel crop compared to 75 million bushels last year. The most recent crop progress report estimated Colorado's wheat crop as 53% good and 12% excellent.

Wheat futures dropped sharply lower today on news of the potentially good yields. However, scouts expect to see some harsher conditions as they enter southwest Kansas where early dry conditions have hurt yield potential.

The tour departs Colby on Wednesday and continues on to Wichita with one route surveying northern Oklahoma. Oklahoma and Texas representatives will give updates.

On Thursday, scouts travel from Wichita to Manhattan. This year the tour releases statewide yield and production estimates around noon, prior to the market close.

DTN/Progressive Farmer Crops/Technology Editor Pamela Smith will be tweeting her observations from the field. Follow her at @PamSmithDTN to see her latest updates or to ask her questions.

Pamela Smith can be reached at Pamela.smith@dtn.com

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