High Input Costs, Low Prices Squeeze Wheat Acres for 2026

Wheat might be cast as a regular loser in the battle for acres, but it's held its ground over the last decade, with farmers planting between 44.5 million and 50 million acres each year. But, growers are facing increasingly hard planting decisions as tough price scenarios bump up against even tougher input prices.

"Growers understand the importance of small grains and what they do for their rotations," says Travis Messer, an agronomist who is involved in the multigenerational Messer Beaver Creek Ranch, near Richardton, North Dakota.

Farmers are optimizing fertilizer and fungicide applications, applying seed treatments, adopting water management techniques and cover crops, sampling tissue and employing the data-driven playbook. Winners of this year's National Wheat Yield Contest averaged more than 147 bushels per acre (bpa), a demonstration of what's possible with intense management. In 2025, the Messer farm wheat yield contest entry of 101.15 bpa was a solid 150.25% above the Stark County average of 40.41 bpa.

"However, the future -- of hard red spring wheat especially -- hangs in the balance of profitability versus what's better long term. Today, inputs are simply too high to justify overapplication or doing things the way we always have done them," Messer says.

North Dakota State University Extension estimates farmers in that state will, on average, spend $100 per acre on fertilizer for the 2026 season to produce a spring wheat crop. The total cost of production, including land and machinery expense, is estimated at $6.55 per bushel. Spring wheat futures prices for July delivery hovered just above $6 per bushel in early February.

SHARED ECONOMIC STRAIN

The economics are similarly challenging for hard red and soft red winter wheat production.

"Obviously, it's not fun being in this kind of a price environment -- whether you are growing wheat, corn, soybeans. Everything is depressed," says Hoxie, Kansas, farmer Brett Oelke. "But, while it isn't fun times, I wouldn't say it is the worst of times either. We are finding ways to keep wheat woven into our program."

It comes down to making smart decisions, he says. For Oelke, that means paying attention to things such as soil tests to show a fertility credit or keep him from dipping too deep into the savings.

"Mostly, we are managing as intensively as we can while being practical. We want to make sure we don't overspend or underspend while still staying focused. If we can trim $20 to $30 per acre off our nitrogen cost without costing a bushel, that's money in the bank," he says.

A four-year drought and dropping water levels in the Ogallala Aquifer are ever-present reminders of why wheat is a mainstay in the rotation.

"We need the wheat residue for soil moisture conservation to grow subsequent corn crops," Oelke says. "We don't really have good cash-crop alternatives that generate that kind of crop residue in this part of western Kansas.

"We're also working closely with gluten and flour mills to add value when we can," adds Oelke, who also has numerous wheat yield contest wins to his credit.

SYSTEMS-LEVEL THINKING

Jochum Wiersma, University of Minnesota Extension small grains specialist, says the water-saving advantages of wheat correlate to other systems-based advantages.

When farmers create their cash-flows and projections for different cropping patterns, such as continuous corn versus a wheat/corn/soybean rotation, they need to look at yield history.

Economists and producers sometimes analyze returns per acre for individual crops without consideration for the rotational partners. There are, however, opportunity costs because of the crop rotation -- continuous corn doesn't yield the same as corn following wheat. Those extra bushels of corn are attributable to the wheat crop and therefore can be included in the enterprise analysis of wheat rather than corn, Wiersma notes.

"That additional number of bushels is, in a sense, attributable to the rotational partner," he says, adding there are additional agronomic benefits, too, such as better management of herbicide-resistant weeds, diseases and pests.

"That doesn't necessarily make wheat look great, or all of a sudden better than corn ... but it makes it fairer, and we start recognizing systems thinking rather than individual enterprise thinking," Wiersma adds.

PROTEIN PRESSURE

Minnesota farmers have almost doubled their average spring wheat yields during the last 30 years. Wiersma attributes it to better genetics, management and acreage concentration in the highest-producing areas.

But, unlike corn and soybeans, the market doesn't just want bushels. Millers want spring wheat to contain 14% protein.

"We maximize grain yield before we get to that 14% protein level and almost have to overapply nitrogen to get to it," Wiersma explains.

As of late January, urea cost an average of $574 per ton, up 17% from last year, while anhydrous cost $856 per ton, 15% higher than in 2025, according to retail fertilizer price bids collected by DTN.

Messer says growers in southwest North Dakota need to produce more than 70 bpa for spring wheat to pencil out a profit, a big challenge with the region's soils and weather.

"I have encouraged many growers to focus their time and attention on trying to drive their nitrogen efficiency number down to 1.1 to 1.2 pounds of N applied per bushel. This would essentially be a 50 to 60% reduction in standard industry practice," he says. "This is the only way growers will have any chance of success making hard red spring wheat cash-flow for 2026."

He expects a reduction in spring wheat acres in North Dakota this spring if input prices stay where they are, and demand doesn't pick up.

"Growers simply cannot afford $150- to $200-per-acre losses on wheat and remain sustainable long term. They will simply switch to alternative crops," Messer says.

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-- Follow the latest from Pamela Smith, Senior Crops Editor, by visiting the Production Blogs at https://www.dtnpf.com/… or following her on social platform X @PamSmithDTN

-- Katie Dehlinger, Editor In Chief, contributed to this article. You may email Katie at katie.dehlinger@dtn.com, or follow Katie on social platform X @KatieD_DTN

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