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The summer forecast was a bust for most of the country. Without a real climate driver running the show (the El Nino-Southern Oscillation [ENSO] was neutral and basically spot-on average the entire summer), the weather pattern featured a lot of moving parts and no significant stagnant blocks in the upper-level pattern. That led the summer to be quite active, and a lot of rain fell across a wide area of the country. The West has not been nearly as active, and drought is very intense in this region, which could lead to an increase in wildfires. The southern and eastern Corn Belt were very dry in August and likely saw the trimming of yields as well. Drought has been increasing in recent weeks.

Though summer featured a neutral ENSO, it appears that La Nina will make its return for fall, especially late in the season. Typically, this means a warmer and drier pattern for much of the U.S., leading to good overall conditions during harvest but some concerns for winter wheat planting and establishment.

Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon and Washington): It was hotter and drier this summer, which caused widespread drought to develop in the region. This fall may continue to showcase above-normal temperatures on average but also allows for an increase in storm coverage and potential for more beneficial rainfall, especially later in the season. That may turn out to be favorable for those planting winter grains, allowing them to be planted easily with potential drought reduction during the end of the season toward winter. However, the lingering drought could cause an increase in the wildfire situation this fall.

Southwest: The monsoon has been active this summer, but mainly in the east. Despite that, drought has continued to be entrenched and has even expanded in many areas this summer. Hotter and drier conditions are forecast to continue through the fall, which could have a major impact on the wildfire season, especially in California.

Northern Plains: It hasn't been perfect, but the summer was much more active than forecast, allowing drought reduction to spread to many areas. Drought persists in some spotty areas, though, especially in western Montana. An overall hotter and drier fall could spread drought through more of the region, complicating winter wheat planting and establishment.

Central and Southern Plains: Fears of a dry summer were too aggressive and overplayed, as a much more active weather situation brought widespread heavy rainfall to many areas of the region. That led to an overall reduction in drought, which is uncommon during the summer months. Very little drought is on the board to start the fall, but a hotter and drier season is forecast. We could see the pendulum swing the other way this fall and see drought return. That would affect winter wheat planting and establishment but would make for good conditions for harvesting corn and soybeans.

Coastal Texas and Louisiana: Though the Gulf has been largely quiet this summer, rainfall has been near normal, and drought has not been a concern so far. An active fall is forecast with the developing La Nina, favoring the potential for more tropical storms. Outside of this, drier weather would be likely, and we could see drought expanding if the tropics are not as active.

Midwest: Conditions were generally wet for most of the region in June and July, but the rain shut down across the south and east in August. Dryness and drought have been expanding in these areas and is likely to continue with a drier forecast ahead. We may have issues with soil-moisture replenishment in some areas if it is too dry, but overall, this fall should allow most folks to do what they need to do in their fields. Temperatures are cooler to start the season, but are forecast to trend above normal for the end of September through November.

Delta/Lower Mississippi Valley: Showers were frequent early in the summer but almost completely shut off going into August. Drought rapidly expanded, especially across the northern end of the region. Fall conditions are forecast to be drier as well, but the tropical season is reaching its peak, and there could be some surprise events that bring in more rain than forecast. If the rains do underperform, then we could see drought expanding further heading into the winter.

Mid-Atlantic and Northeast: Though it was active early in the summer, the second half of the season was much drier, and drought has been expanding throughout much of the region. A mild and dry pattern is forecast for the fall, too, and we could see drought expanding heading toward winter.

Southeast: An active start to the summer waned going through July but picked up late in the month heading into early August. This led to very limited drought development in the region, though the northwestern edge near the Delta and Midwest have seen drought expanding. The tropics have been quieter during summer, but the forecast for fall could involve a couple of systems. If these do not occur, the region will likely end up on the drier side, and that could mean expanding dryness and drought heading into winter. However, that would be favorable for the fall harvest.

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-- You may email John at john.baranick@dtn.com

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