Future of Food

The future of food depends on the future of farms and triggers a lot of questions. What will farms look like, and how will farmers produce enough to feed almost 10 billion people expected by 2050? What changes are needed, especially as the Global Food Security Index (GFSI) already indicates the global food environment is deteriorating while food prices keep rising? What will people want to eat, and will they be able to afford what they need?

Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, U.S. representative to the United Nations (UN) and U.S. representative to the UN Security Council, explains myriad reasons for food insecurity. "COVID has strained supply lines, energy costs have made it more expensive to produce and ship food. Rising temperatures and severe droughts have destroyed crops and left fields fallow. And, in many conflicts around the world, food is intentionally blocked or destroyed, and dictators use starvation as a weapon of war," she says.

"Farmers are continually being asked to grow significantly more food with fewer resources and increasing scrutiny from society," says Tim Glenn, executive vice president of the Seed Business Unit for Corteva Agriscience. "Farmers face challenges like increasing pressure from the environment, whether it's for pests, diseases or changing environment, the need to improve the productivity of their farms while ensuring profitability to manage their operations, and most importantly, access to technology and knowledge that they need to support their operations."

American farmers have a key role in feeding the world. The U.S. exports grains and feeds, soybeans, livestock products, tree nuts, fruits, vegetables and other products, with Canada, East Asia, the EU and Mexico as its main trading partners.

"For corn, soybeans and wheat, (U.S.) yields are expected to increase at rates consistent with historic trends, reflecting continuing advancements in production practices and in technology, including improvements in seed varieties and chemicals. Higher yields are expected to more than compensate for reduced planted acreage, resulting in record-high production for corn and soybeans, and increased wheat production. However, projections show wheat production remaining well below levels from most of the past two decades," reports USDA in its February "Amber Waves" newsletter about agricultural baseline projections up to 2032.

As protein consumption trends change, the U.S. will adapt and expects to be second only to China for the total increase of meat production in the next 10 years. But, will those crops and meat that the U.S. produces be enough?

INCREASING PRODUCTIVITY ON LESS LAND

Henning Otte Hansen, from the Department of Food and Resource Economics at the University of Copenhagen, in Denmark, spoke to the International Federation of Agricultural Journalists meeting last summer. He says one of the global challenges to food and agriculture is to double ag production in the next 40 years, but this will need to be done by increasing yields and having more efficient farmers, because the agricultural area will not be expanded. He says almost 5 billion acres of farmland and forest have been completely or partially destroyed in the last 50 years; by 2050, farmland in the world is expected to increase only by 8%, or almost 173 million acres. He warns climate change will reduce ag production in Africa by 15 to 30%.

He adds farmers will produce more food while they attempt to balance farming versus nature, genetically modified (GM) versus organic farming, environment versus increasing production and food versus fuel. Water will be a scarce resource for irrigation.

European farmer Kati Partanen, a board member with the World Farmers' Organisation, says it's not a case of big farms are bad for the environment and small ones aren't. "So, any size can be economically efficient. Any size can be environmentally good." She adds there isn't an optimal size of farm. "No, it's very much depending on the conditions and the management of the farm."

LIVING IN A DIVERSE WORLD

David Leishman, agricultural counselor with the U.S. Embassy in Paris, stresses we live in a world that is very diverse. Even in the U.S., agriculture in each state is different, such as Iowa from Vermont, in terms of crops, climate and labor.

"I think the challenge for the future of agriculture is how to adapt technology in an efficient way to address the challenges ... We can't forget the fact that agriculture is really a local activity -- we grow food in a particular location. And, if we're trying to feed the world, we really need to use every instrument available efficiently to be able to address that challenge," Leishman explains.

This ranges from genetically modified crops to climate-smart agriculture, which boost production and benefit the environment, to controlled environmental agriculture (CEA), such as greenhouses, tunnels and vertical farming in buildings. CEA includes hydroponics, aeroponics and aquaponics that can control optimal growing conditions, use a lot less water, as well as protect the plants from pests and diseases.

Hansen says to produce more food, other options will be needed: lab meat, artificial meat, synthetic milk and vertical farming. Plenty Unlimited Inc. recently announced its plans to build the world's largest and most advanced vertical-farming research center in Laramie, Wyoming. The more than 60,000-square-foot facility will be built on 16 acres of land.

Tomorrow's menu could include synthetic milk, insect ingredients (such as flour made from crushed crickets) and appetizing algae grown at sea that is already a core part of Japanese diets, Hansen says.

ACCESS NEEDED

Partanen emphasizes success requires access. "We are wasting potential if we don't have equal opportunities, equal opportunities among men and women and other groups, and also for young farmers. And, there's very often a lack of access: access to land and finance, (and access to) education and training or advisory. So, if we don't pay attention to this lack of access, we are clearly losing potential, and we will not for sure be feeding 10 billion people by 2050."

Access to markets is also critical. Luis Fernando Haro Encinas, director general of Mexico's National Agricultural Council, which represents 1.8 million producers, points to trade success with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Haro highlights the uniqueness and importance of the North America region, and its ability to feed more than 500 million people in the three countries. "Very few countries in the world can say that, through this trade relationship, we can assure supply for our countries' food supply." He adds that in the region, they can produce all types of products in many different seasons, and the agreement led Mexico to focus more on certification, food safety, production efficiency, sustainability and treatment of workers.

But, Haro says the world faces challenges, and a population of 10 billion will require more services and food. "We need to increase the food production almost 60% compared to now, so this is a big challenge for all of us."

Christian Friis Bach, from www.warfair.org, is an agronomist and farmer, has been a member of parliament in Denmark and has worked for the UN in different humanitarian organizations. "Historically, there have been predictions continuously saying that we will run out (of food), and we will see the devastating impacts it will have on the world. Farmers have beaten all these expectations," he says. "As wheat prices go up, farmers all over the world will get higher prices. And, especially the poor farmers and farmers in Africa, you know, they will also react to this. They have seen devastating depths in global prices and unstable markets for decades. If we see higher prices, it can boost farm production, also in poor countries, and there's no bigger mechanism to create growth, income and jobs in the country than farmers and in production."

The global food security crisis must be faced head-on with U.S. foreign policy, but also with China doing more to help other countries. It contributed to the extensive debt of many of the African countries, Thomas-Greenfield explains, adding that the World Bank and International Monetary Fund also need to play a much more aggressive role in addressing the debt crisis in countries as part of dealing with global food insecurity.

For more on climate-smart agriculture, visit the Progressive Farmer November 2022 issue at

https://www.dtnpf.com/…

UKRAINE WAR IMPACT ON AG

The continuing Russia-Ukraine war affects farms and food production within Ukraine, but also influences other parts of the world.

"We were already in a challenging period; even before the invasion of Ukraine, prices were rising for food, fuel and fertilizer," says Rob Bertram, chief scientist at the United States Agency for International Development's (USAID) Bureau for Resilience and Food Security. He says the invasion "really affected the availability of key foods, especially wheat and vegetable oil, sunflower oil, in particular, that were heavily exported out of Ukraine." He adds the war is tough on countries heavily dependent on wheat from Ukraine, as well as those who import fertilizer from Russia. Often, these are the lower-income countries of the world.

"Before the war, Russia and Ukraine accounted for almost a quarter of global grain exports. But, now Ukraine's once-rolling wheat fields have become battlefields," says Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, U.S. representative to the United Nations. The crisis in Ukraine leads to food insecurity with people starving in the world, and this then leads to political and social instability. This endangers us all, she stresses.

Kyiv-based Ukrainian agriculture journalist Iurii Mykhailov says in a late-February essay for the International Federation of Agricultural Journalists that infrastructure such as roads, bridges, power transmission lines, dams, irrigation and other facilities are destroyed or damaged. "Many Ukrainian cities and villages ceased to exist."

Mykhailov says 15% of livestock farms and 10% of cows were destroyed. Farms and enterprises have been looted. The Russians stole about 6 million metric tons (mmt) of grain, with the value of the stolen food at about 1 billion euros, he says. "What the Russians could not take out and steal, they destroyed. About 400,000 bee colonies, 95,000 goats and sheep, 212,000 cattle, 507,000 pigs and almost 11.7 million birds died. In total, farmers and beekeepers lost resources worth more than $360 million. In addition, more than 14,300 hectares of perennial plantations were destroyed as a result of hostilities," he says.

Mykhailov adds ag production is significantly decreased, income is down because of closed businesses, and farmers face challenges to sell their products. Recurring power outages affect the ag and food industry, including production, processing, food storage facilities, restaurants, grocery stores and supermarkets. "In rural areas, animal farms may be cut off from electricity for several days or even weeks." Even if food gets to the cities, the power outages close grocery stores. "The estimated losses of Ukrainian agribusiness due to the invasion of Russia is about 50 billion euros."

He goes on: "In 2022, Ukraine harvested about 65 mmt of grains and oilseeds, which is 40% less than in 2021 (107 mmt). Lack of working capital, shortages of seeds and blackouts are the main problems that Ukrainian farmers may face during the spring sowing."

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FOR MORE INFORMATION:

-- Progressive Farmer November 2022 issue on climate-smart agriculture: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

-- https://www.warfair.org/…

-- Iurii Mykhailov's essay: https://acrobat.adobe.com/…

-- Ukrainian Market: https://acrobat.adobe.com/…

-- You may email Elaine at elaine.shein@dtn.com, reach her on Twitter @elaineshein or call 402-214-8531

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