WeatherLink

As we go into the heart of the spring 2018 season, producers in the U.S. Southern Plains are dealing with not just a dry pattern but a full-on drought for the second time within the past 10 years. It’s a bout of dryness that will likely resonate throughout the entire growing season.

The Southern Plains drought is intense. Many stations in the region have had the driest winter in their recorded history, mostly going back to the 1880s. Reviewing that last sentence, I’m struck by the historical import of this precipitation deficit. To mention that the winter of 2017–18 is the driest in recorded history in such locations as southwestern Kansas, western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle means the Dust Bowl of the 1930s and the withering drought of the 1950s are bypassed in the record books. That’s how harsh the onset of drought has been.

In another example of how drought can quickly take over, the latest development in the Southern Plains offers a good example. I reviewed the U.S. Drought Monitor for the region, and it’s apparent that this drought set in during November, when the first stages of dryness started showing up. Ever since, the grip of drought has just gotten stronger.

Another facet of the Southern Plains drought development is that it coincides with the Pacific Ocean cooling to La Niña levels. This cooling took hold in the 2017 September/October/November time frame--about the time the precipitation shut off in the Southern Plains. Research by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists Chet Ropelewski and Michael Halpert on the impact of Pacific Ocean temperature patterns shows that La Niña events have a high correlation to Southern Plains drought. The 2010–2012 drought in the region was also a product of a multiyear La Niña.

Another factor in the exhausting Southern Plains drought is how winter temperatures performed. Temperatures were, in many locations, quite mild through the winter. This actually exacerbated the drought, because wheat did not go into dormancy very early; thus, more soil moisture was consumed.

How long will this extensive dryness last? That is a key question for the 2018 growing season. Pacific temperatures look to be trending toward neutral values by the end of the spring season. However, meaningful drought easing doesn’t look likely until late summer and fall. Unfortunately, that means the 2018 growing season will be one of managing with limited water resources and tough decisions.

Read Bryce’s weather blog at about.dtnpf.com/weather.

bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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