WeatherLink

The new year began with the presence of La Niña in the Pacific Ocean. Water temperatures throughout the equator region were about 1º Celsius (close to 2º Fahrenheit) below average, and the effect of that ocean cooling is making its way into the 2018 crop prospects in South America. During the key reproductive time frame for corn and soybeans, the weather pattern had a definite “have” and “have not” characteristic. The result is that South America production may do well to just match the robust totals of the 2016–17 crop season.

Let’s start with the “haves.” That’s an easy call--most of Brazil. The largest-producing area, the Center-West (which includes Mato Grosso), had a later start than usual to its rainy season. However, once the rain began in November, it has been very consistent. The southern part of Brazil had a drier period at the end of 2017 but has since seen doses of moisture on a regular basis. Projections for Brazil’s soybean output in 2017–18 are running accordingly; some planting delays because of the later onset of rain are likely to result in a lower-volume crop than last year, but only fractionally lower than 2016–17.

There is one drawback in this healthy Brazil scenario, and that’s the total corn crop size for 2017–18. The later start to soybean planting means the country’s winter (safrinha) corn crop following soybean harvest will be planted later than a year ago. That’s less time for corn to develop and pollinate ahead of Brazil’s dry season. So, corn production has a lower projection but by no means to the disastrously low total of two years ago.

Now, we come to Argentina, and here, the story has some wide variety. The beltline of the country’s major crop regions had generally favorable precipitation leading up to the midsummer segment of the southern hemisphere crop year. In the northern and southern portions, though, the pattern was drier and hotter. And, there has been just enough of this combination occurring to lead to ideas that Argentina’s soybean crop size is unlikely to see much, if any, growth from a year ago, while the country’s corn crop may very well be a few percentage points under the 2016–17 crop total. This would mean less growth of the world corn supply but not a big dent in production.

In summary, the 2017–18 season isn’t showing the promise of more record crop production in South America. While some good things have happened weatherwise, particularly in Brazil, there are just enough setbacks--however brief they may be--to put a cautionary note into the assessment of just how large the crop will be when harvest truly gets under way.

Read Bryce’s weather blog at about.dtnpf.com/weather.

bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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