USDA Nov. 1 Cattle on Feed Report

By DTN Staff

OMAHA (DTN) -- Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.9 million head on Nov. 1, 2023. The inventory was 2% above Nov. 1, 2022, USDA NASS reported on Friday.

Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.16 million head, 4% above 2022. Net placements were 2.11 million head. During October, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 550,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 470,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 465,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 394,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 205,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 80,000 head.

Marketings of fed cattle during October totaled 1.76 million head, 3% below 2022.

Other disappearance totaled 55,000 head during October, 2% above 2022.

DTN ANALYSIS

"The November Cattle on Feed report is expected to be viewed as less bearish than many had feared but slightly more bearish than most had hoped," said DTN Contributing Analyst Rick Kment.

"The focus throughout the week continued to be on the wide range of pre-report estimates for cattle placement," Kment said. "The total number of cattle placed in feedyards during the month of October came in well below pre-report estimates, which is expected to create some positive overall support to the cattle complex early next week. The volatility in live cattle and feeder cattle futures during this week had more to do with traders trying to adjust positions in front of the report. Total placements of 104% above last year's levels is still smaller than the September placements percentages. Total placements throughout the nation actually decreased 64,000 head from the previous month, which is expected to indicate that the seasonal high of placements was hit in September. This was the biggest question following last month's aggressive cattle placement levels: whether higher placements would continue or if cattle were placed into feedyards earlier than in previous years.

"The 2% increase in cattle-on-feed levels is well within expectations and not out of line with where the industry should be given the early year placement of cattle. Typically, peak cattle-on-feed numbers are on Feb. 1, which may continue to be the case this year and could subdue significant support through the upcoming weeks.

"The number of cattle marketed during October may be the most bearish of the report numbers, although this may not lead to significant short-term shifts to the market. With cattle marketing falling 3% instead of the estimated 2% in pre-report estimates, the supply of beef yet to move to market will continue to be a challenge through the holidays.

"Overall, this report is expected to be seen as generally neutral by the market moves once trade continues Monday morning due to the fact that the higher cattle placement expectations were already partially factored into live cattle and feeder cattle futures prices."

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DTN subscribers can view the full Cattle on Feed reports in the Livestock Archives folder under the Markets menu. The report is also available at https://www.nass.usda.gov/….

	USDA Actual	Average Estimate	Range
On Feed Nov. 1	102%	102.1%	101.4-102.6%
Placed in October	104%	107.0%	102.7-108.1%
Marketed in October	97%	98.1%	97.2-98.5%

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