Price Outlook Tools
Seven Market Information Sources Cattle Producers Should Be Following
Every cattle market analyst has his or her own way of looking at where prices are headed. Personal experience and even intuition play a role, but there are some key information sources many routinely rely on.
1. USDA WADSE REPORTS. Each month, agricultural analysts, whether on the crops side or the livestock side, look forward to the latest data from the USDA in the form of their monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WADSE) report. This is a comprehensive forecast of supply and demand for major crops and livestock.
2. LOCAL AUCTION SALES. The Agricultural Marketing Service reports prices on feeder cattle sales from local auctions. These reports are broken down by state.
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3. DROUGHT REPORTS. A key factor in analyzing where cattle numbers are headed is to consider the weather in a region. Drought can lead to liquidation in a region, forcing prices lower in those local markets. Look to the National Drought Mitigation Center for weekly updates.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/…
4. WEATHER AND THE MARKETS. Maybe it's not a drought, but a derecho event or a blizzard affecting your local markets. For a look at the big picture, with current market commentary, you can rely on DTN's analysts.
5. FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKETS. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is where buyers and traders hedge price risks globally. On the livestock side, CME includes live cattle, feeder cattle and lean hogs. Live cattle are physically delivered contracts; feeder cattle are cash-settled contracts. CME offers reports and news on their website, helping spot trends.
6. NEW REPORTS. Last year, USDA announced two new reports: the National Daily Direct Formula Base Cattle Report and the National Weekly Cattle Net Price Distribution Report. They are a response by USDA to an executive order titled "Promoting Competition in the American Economy," which directed USDA to enhance price discovery, increase transparency and improve the functioning of cattle and other livestock markets.
7. DIGITAL PLATFORMS. Some video auction sites only offer seasonal data; others report weekly. For a full list of feeder cattle internet and video reports and platforms, go to this USDA page with links: https://www.ams.usda.gov/….
Victoria Myers can be reached at vicki.myers@dtn.com
Follow her on Twitter @myersPF
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