Spring Wheat Tour Day 1 Results

This article was originally posted at 6:19 p.m. CDT on Tuesday, July 22. It was last updated with additional information at 9:57 p.m. CDT on Tuesday, July 22.

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During Day 1 of the Wheat Quality Council's Spring Wheat and Durum Tour, those scouting wheat fields from Fargo to Bismarck, North Dakota, endured both mud and mosquitoes as they traversed six routes across the southern third of the state. They also witnessed the destruction caused by severe storms one month ago.

On Monday, North Dakota Gov. Kelly Armstrong submitted a request for a presidential major disaster declaration for severe storms that impacted the state on June 20-21. Less than 24 hours later, 51 crop tour scouts -- many newly ordained -- visited 171 wheat fields in the state, arriving at a total weighted average yield estimate of 49.8 bushels per acre (bpa). Last year, the average yield estimate along these routes was 52.3 bpa.

"The storm damage was evident at every farm you went by," said Anne Osborne, executive director of the National Wheat Foundation who's participating in this year's tour. "There were downed trees, buildings without roofs and lots of damaged grain bins. It begs the question of where we're going to put this crop because it's a good crop."

The storms that pummeled North Dakota in June produced 20 confirmed tornadoes, up to baseball-sized hail, damaging straight-line winds with gusts up to 111 mph and torrential rainfall that led to localized flash flooding. Yet, despite this carnage, the resiliency of the state's wheat crop was on display during the tour's first day.

In the 167 hard spring wheat fields observed by tour scouts, the estimated yields ranged from a low of 11.0 bpa to a high of 122.5 bpa, with an average of 50.0 bpa. The scouts also estimated yield in three durum fields that averaged 48.3 bpa and one winter wheat field that averaged 22.8 bpa.

Overall, pests and disease were estimated to be low with some observation of Fusarium head blight, bacterial leaf streak, wheat stem maggots and grasshoppers.

"To me, the biggest issue is lodging," Osborne noted. "It's going to be a difficult harvest because of the lodging. Some of it is from the storms, and some of it is because the crop is laying over, laden with grain."

Scout Warwick Carter, from Louis Dreyfus Companies, echoed those observations in a text to DTN Tuesday evening. His car reported an average yield of 47.4 bpa with a high of 64 bpa and a low of 18 bpa.

"Fields were muddy with standing water in some fields," Carter texted. "Crop maturity is mixed with some wheat 2 to 3 weeks from harvest and others 5 to 6 weeks. Our car did not observe any disease pressure today, but other cars saw instances of bacterial leaf streak, light scab pressure and some smut (overall disease looks good, though). A few cars noted seeing hail damage."

Jim Pellman of McCluskey, North Dakota, who became chairman of U.S. Wheat Associates this past week at the organization's summer meeting in Boise, Idaho, spoke to those gathered to hear about the results from the tour's first day. He noted that based on an average crop, wheat farmers are losing money.

"They're not making money at today's prices, so wheat's on sale," he said. "We've had three record crops in a row, consistently higher state averages. I wouldn't have bet that we'd have four in a row, but I can say we're going to be over that 50-bushel average yield in North Dakota. USDA has us at 59 bpa, and that was what last year's was, so there's going to be a lot of bushels for sale.

"With that yield, I don't think our price is getting any better," he continued. "So, from the farmer's perspective, having a good crop -- above average with mediocre prices -- at least I survive. I can't say that if we'd have a below-average crop and today's prices where everybody would be. But from this farmer's standpoint, where we are is good for me. I can live to see another year."

In its Crop Production report, released July 11 and based on July 1 conditions, USDA estimated a national spring wheat yield of 51.7 bpa, down from 52.5 bpa last year. North Dakota's estimated yield remained at 59.0 bpa, unchanged from 2024. National durum yield was forecast at 38.7 bpa, down from 39.3 bpa last year, while North Dakota's yield for that crop remained unchanged at 47.0 bpa.

On Wednesday, July 23, Day 2 of the wheat tour moves into northwest and north-central North Dakota, ending the day in Devils Lake.

DTN Basis Analyst Mary Kennedy contributed to this article.

Jason Jenkins can be reached at jason.jenkins@dtn.com

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