Hard Winter Wheat Tour Begins This Week

MANHATTAN, Kan. (DTN) -- For the second consecutive season, those who travel to Kansas for the Wheat Quality Council's Hard Winter Wheat Tour are arriving with cautious optimism. By Thursday, after three days of getting their boots dirty in fields across the state, they'll know whether optimism is still worth having.

Nearly 70 people are participating in this year's event, said Dave Green, Wheat Quality Council executive vice president and tour organizer. Over the course of three tour days, the group will collectively travel thousands of miles across multiple routes in Kansas, along with one route in southern Nebraska and one in northern Oklahoma. Along the way, the scouts will stop in hundreds of wheat fields and estimate the crop's overall yield potential, assessing its condition and quality and noting the presence and severity of insects and disease.

"Our numbers are down a little this year," said Green about tour participation. "We have our usual mix of people representing millers and bakers, grain companies, the commodity folks, universities and media, but I don't have a single federal employee on this tour. So that's how much they've shut down government travel."

The group assembles late this afternoon in Manhattan, where each participant will be trained on how to calculate yield estimates and identify pests and diseases. Then, on May 13, they will hit the road and head west to Colby, Kansas, stopping every 10 to 15 miles to assess winter wheat fields along six predetermined routes that are followed year after year.

The tour continues May 14, venturing along routes that take the participants south before heading back east and ending the day in Wichita, Kansas. On May 15, the tour concludes back in Manhattan, where the data from all three days will be combined to arrive at an average yield for the tour.

WHAT TO EXPECT

In 2024, wheat production in Kansas rebounded after two successive years of drought had led to some of the highest abandonment rates seen in more than a century. USDA estimated that last year, Kansas produced 307 million bushels of winter wheat with an average yield of 43 bushels per acre (bpa), besting the agency's May 2024 production estimate by 39 million bushels but falling short of the 46.5 bpa estimated during last year's wheat tour.

The USDA May 2025 Production Report, released Monday, estimated this year's Kansas winter wheat crop will be larger than last year despite a decrease in harvested acreage. USDA anticipates a 12.2% production increase to 345 million bushels with an average yield of 50 bpa across 6.9 million acres.

The weekly USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Progress and Condition Report released May 5, estimated that 40% of the Kansas winter wheat crop was in good condition, up 29% for the same week last year. NASS rated the remainder of the current crop as 5% very poor, 15% poor, 33% fair and 7% excellent.

An estimated 45% of Kansas winter wheat was headed, well ahead of the five-year average of 26%.

The U.S. Drought Monitor map released May 8 showed only 5.13% of Kansas was experiencing severe drought conditions, compared to 28.81% during the same week last year. While 42.08% of the state was considered abnormally dry, no extreme or exceptional drought conditions were present.

DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said that it does seem like the weather situation is better this year than the last several, including last year.

"Part of that can be explained by how poorly the winter wheat crop went into the ground back in fall 2023, when Kansas had a lot of widespread drought in September that didn't really go away, especially over south-central and southwestern Kansas where, in some cases, it got worse in the spring," he said. "This past fall planting season wasn't all that great, either. A lot of the drought stuck around or got worse throughout October. "However, a very active and fantastic month of rain fell in November, so plants that were still active should have gotten a good bit of help in growing roots through the winter," Baranick added. "We did see some late-season frost and a couple of harsh cold events when the ground was uncovered, but overall it wasn't too bad."

SOME HELPFUL MOISTURE

Baranick noted that Kansas was experiencing a pretty active spring season. Though western Kansas seemed to be frequently on the outside looking in -- watching others in Oklahoma, the Texas Panhandle and Missouri get in on rainfall events -- the last couple of weeks have been helpful.

"A rainfall event in late April helped to increase soil moisture for a lot of areas and reduce drought. Another one this past week (May 6-8) has helped to bring in much more widespread rainfall into the region and coming at a good time, when only about half the wheat has headed according to NASS," he said. "Coverage was almost statewide with widespread areas seeing more than an inch and pockets of more than 2 inches estimated in a zone from Ulysses to Liberal in the southwest. However, areas close to the Nebraska border and over into the state have not had nearly the same rainfall though, and there are some major concerns up there as we continue on through the season."

Baranick said looking ahead, the forecast for the second half of May does look more active.

"It doesn't necessarily mean widespread heavy rain that wheat would enjoy, but it does give a lot of folks some opportunity yet," he added. "Some models keep that going into early June as well, though the general focus for significant rain is east of the state by then.

"Long-range forecasts have been calling for a hotter and drier summer season for a long time now, and there's no reason to change the thought process on that yet," he concluded. "So, the end of the season could be a little more stressful, though that might make harvest go relatively smoothly."

In its May 5 report, USDA rated Kansas topsoil moisture supplies as 9% very short, 27% short, 56% adequate and 8% surplus. Subsoil moisture supplies were rated 13% very short, 29% short, 54% adequate and 4% surplus.

Last year, the weighted average yield from the Wheat Quality Council's 2024 Hard Winter Wheat Tour was 46.5 bushels per acre (bpa). In its 2024 Crop Production Summary released in January, USDA estimated yield in Kansas was 43 bpa, while the national yield averaged 51.7 bpa for winter wheat.

While the improved weather conditions for winter wheat production during the past two seasons provide optimism, there is a growing concern over high levels of wheat streak mosaic virus in parts of Kansas. According to a May 8 Kansas State University Extension newsletter article by Kelsey Andersen Onofre, extension wheat pathologist, symptoms of the disease have been found across the state during the past several weeks as temperatures have increased.

"We have some fields that are close to total losses," said the plant pathologist in a press release issued by Kansas Wheat. "It's hard to walk in a wheat field in Kansas right now and not find at least low-level, trace-level symptoms of WSMV, and that's pretty unusual."

Green said he doesn't like to speculate about what the tour's scouts will find before they hit the road this week.

"This tour is more than just drought indices and rainfall and crop condition reports," he said. "I think it's nice to just let the crop come to you on the tour and see what you see and hear what other people are seeing on the other routes."

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Editor's Note:

DTN Crops Editor Jason Jenkins is participating in this year's winter wheat tour in Kansas. Look for daily updates and final yield estimates on www.dtnpf.com and on social platform X.

Jason Jenkins can be reached at jason.jenkins@dtn.com

Follow him on social platform X @JasonJenkinsDTN

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