US Cotton Acres Expected Lower in 2025

By DTN Staff

OMAHA (DTN) -- U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 9.6 million cotton acres this spring, down 14.5% from 2024, according to the National Cotton Council's 44th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey.

Upland cotton intentions are expected at 9.4 million acres, down 14.4% from 2024, while extra-long staple (ELS) intentions of 158,000 acres represent a 23.5% decline. The survey polled producers across the 17-state Cotton Belt during the month of January regarding the number of acres devoted to cotton and other crops in 2024 and the acres planned for the coming season. The survey results were announced Feb. 16 during the 2025 National Cotton Council (NCC) Annual Meeting.

"Planted acreage is just one of the factors that will determine supplies of cotton and cottonseed. Ultimately, weather and agronomic conditions are among the factors that play a significant role in determining crop size," said Jody Campiche, the NCC's vice president, economics & policy analysis.

DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery said the results reflect current market scenarios.

"Given the difficult fundamental situation for U.S. cotton growers over the past year, it is very reasonable to expect a decline in planted acreage this coming spring," Montgomery noted.

"Current nearby cotton futures are trading at their lowest level since late 2020, with December futures trading at their lowest level relative to December corn futures since early 2023, a year which also saw a sharp decline in cotton acreage in favor for corn acreage. Overall, the rise of Brazil as the world's leading cotton exporter combined with dwindling U.S. domestic demand for raw cotton certainly points to a challenging future at least in the near term for the U.S. cotton industry," Montgomery added.

In a news release about the survey results, Campiche noted U.S. farmers have a history of responding to relative prices when making planting decisions.

"As compared to average futures prices during the first quarter of 2024, all commodity prices were lower during the survey period, but cotton had the largest decline," she said. "As a result, the price ratios of cotton to corn and soybeans were lower than in 2024. Based on historical price relationships, this would generally suggest a decline in cotton acreage."

Based on 10-year average abandonment rates along with a few state-level adjustments, harvested area for the Cotton Belt is estimated at 7.8 million acres for 2025. Using the five-year average yield for each state generates a cotton crop of 13.9 million bales, with 13.5 million upland bales and 392,000 ELS bales.

Southeast survey respondents indicated a 19.3% decline in cotton acreage to 1.9 million acres. Mid-South growers intend to plant 1.8 million acres, a decline of 8.2%. Farmers in the Southwest intend to plant 14.5% less cotton. In the West, upland cotton acreage is expected to decline by 12.3%. ELS acreage is expected to decline by 23.5% in 2025. Overall, U.S. cotton growers intend to plant 158,000 ELS acres in 2025.

Only two states -- Kansas and New Mexico -- showed slight possible bumps in upland acreages in 2025. Arizona producers reported a slight possible increase in ELS acres, but a decline in upland acres. Find details of the survey results by state and the entire NCC planting intentions release here: https://www.cotton.org/….

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

In a separate release, NCC economists outlined key factors that will shape the U.S. cotton industry's outlook. While an improvement in world cotton demand is anticipated for 2025, potential changes in trade policy have created significant uncertainty in the world cotton market.

U.S. mills are expected to consume 1.73 million bales in 2025-26 as compared to 1.70 million bales in 2024/25. U.S. textile manufacturing remains under pressure from weaker Western Hemisphere trade due in part to the impacts of increased textile imports under de minimis provisions, according to the release.

For the 2025-26 marketing year, world consumption is projected to increase by 1.7% to 117.9 million bales. The projected increase in world consumption along with a larger U.S. supply results in a larger U.S. export projection as compared to 2024-25. Despite the higher export projection, U.S. ending stocks are projected to increase to 5.2 million bales in 2025-26.

Campiche said world production is estimated to decline to 117.2 million bales in 2025-26 due to a slight reduction in harvested acreage and lower yields. With expanded consumption in key importing countries, world trade is projected to increase to 44.2 million bales in 2025-26. For the 2025-26 marketing year, higher world consumption and trade combined with lower production will result in a decline in ending stocks to 77.7 million bales.

While current projections show a slight increase in the U.S. share of world exports for the 2025-26 marketing year, Brazil is projected to continue as the largest exporter for the third year.

Current economic projections for the U.S. and global economies should be viewed with caution given the potential impacts of increased geopolitical tensions and changes in trade policy. The U.S. cotton industry is an export-oriented industry, both for raw fiber, as well as cotton yarns and fabrics and tariffs have the potential to dramatically alter the trade landscape, the NCC released noted.

Find the entire release and more economic details here: https://www.cotton.org/….

For additional news and outlook information from the National Cotton Council go to: https://www.cotton.org/….

Pamela Smith can be reached at pamela.smith@dtn.com

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