Iowa Corn Leaders on E15: Now or Never

OMAHA (DTN) -- As Iowa corn growers and biofuel advocates stress the need for stronger corn demand, the battle over year-round E15 is reaching a critical moment in Congress and the White House.

"We are in the fight for our future, right now, in D.C.," said Monte Shaw, executive director of the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association, during an event with reporters Wednesday.

As Congress readies votes for key funding bills, Rep. Zach Nunn, R-Iowa, filed an amendment allowing year-round E15 to add to the funding package in the House Rules Committee, which started debating the floor rules for the funding bills in a hearing Wednesday afternoon. At publication time, the committee had not taken up Nunn's provision.

On social media, a Politico reporter posted a photo of corn farmers holding signs supporting E15 who were asked by police to leave the Capitol.

Politico also reported farm groups met with White House officials on Wednesday to press for E15 to be included in the funding package. At least a dozen Midwest lawmakers also met with House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., to make the same case for the E15 bill. Those Midwest Republicans threatened to vote against advancing the legislation unless the E15 language is included.

"I think that's the single-most important ag-policy decision that's made this decade," Shaw said. "It literally sets us up to move forward or to go into a very bad place."

Shaw added, "It's now or never" because of midterm elections that could bog down legislation for the rest of the year.

This pendulum over E15 keeps swinging. Last fall, 27 House Republicans -- mainly from oil-producing states such as Texas -- pressed Johnson to block E15 legislation because petroleum groups opposed the bill.

In late 2024, an omnibus funding bill included the E15 provision, but it was among the provisions stripped away after Tesla CEO Elon Musk publicly complained about the size of the bill.

Leaders of the Iowa Corn Growers Association and Iowa Renewable Fuels Association on Wednesday released a study they jointly funded to examine how corn prices could be returned to profitable levels while maintaining current planted acreage. The study specifically analyzed how increased corn demand through biofuels could boost prices.

Mark Mueller, a farmer in northeast Iowa and president of the Iowa Corn Growers Association, said he's a fourth-generation farmer, who added, "and I'm nervous there won't be a fifth-generation Mueller farming on my family land."

Mueller highlighted how corn prices have come down since 2023, but input prices have continued to rise for producers.

"We farmers are working on very tight margins," Mueller said.

Talking about his banker, Mueller said he has his operating loan renewed for 2026, but noted, "He also made the comment, there are loans we are not renewing," Mueller said. He added, "I think they tried to reassure me by saying, don't worry about my operation. 'There will be a lot of other farmers that go bankrupt before you.' I'm sure he was trying to cheer me up, but it didn't have that effect."

The last time cash corn prices were $5 a bushel was late August 2023, according to the DTN National Corn Index. A year ago this week, the cash price for corn was $4.51 a bushel. This week, corn cash sales are averaging $3.89 a bushel.

Meanwhile, USDA in December projected corn input costs would increase 3% for 2026 to average $916.75 an acre nationally.

"The bottom line is that we have high input prices, we have low commodity prices and we're producing more corn all of the time," Mueller said. "We need more places to move our corn."

Soybean costs are projected at $678 per acre, a 1.5% increase from 2025, according to USDA's Economic Research Service.

The American Farm Bureau Federation on Wednesday highlighted the rising operating expenses for corn and eight other principal crops to point out the need for Congress to consider a larger aid package than the $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) Program.

The current farm economy might appear as a "small" farm crisis right now, but the problem could become significantly worse if policies don't help improve market demand. "As is usual, we are out-producing our markets," Shaw said.

In Iowa, corn makes up roughly 30% of cash receipts, or about $11 billion in sales, said David Miller, chief economist at Decision Innovation Solutions.

Miller pointed to rising corn production to stress the need for higher biofuel demand. While boosting the production forecast to 17 billion bushels earlier this month, USDA also raised ending stocks to nearly 2.23 billion bushels for the 2026-27 corn crop. Miller said corn is facing a widening demand gap that will continue to increase as yields continue to rise.

"You get ending stocks rising rapidly throughout the next ten years," Miller said. He added, "So there are some very bleak times ahead of us if we don't find new demand. Our productivity is just that strong."

If E15 became the national standard, replacing E10 at pumps nationally, that would help fulfill the demand gap at least for the next five years. Ideally, demand would need to drop ending stocks about 450 million bushels, which would then lead to roughly a $1 increase in corn prices as a result.

"Demand is the answer, not reduced supply," Miller said.

The next step after E15 would be continuing to press for carbon pipelines and capture that lower the carbon footprint of ethanol for marine fuels and sustainable aviation fuel markets, Miller said.

"If we have E15 developed and we develop and fill the demand gap with ultra-low carbon ethanol, we can move the corn market back to profitable levels and hold the market up around that $5 to $5.50 a bushel range," Miller said.

The Iowa Legislature remains locked with multiple bills dealing with carbon pipelines, route approvals and whether to restrict the use of eminent domain for carbon pipelines. While Republicans control the governorship, House and Senate in Iowa, carbon pipeline rules have been among the most divisive issues for the GOP in the state over the past three years. The ethanol industry sees pipelines as critical for increasing opportunities, noting Nebraska ethanol plants are starting to tap into those pipelines to lower the carbon intensity scores of their ethanol.

"The markets that are out there ... are the marine markets, SAF markets, other markets that want ultra-low-carbon ethanol for Iowa to compete in that we need the easiest and most cost-effective way to do that is to have carbon capture, use and sequestration," Shaw said.

Also see, "Funding Deal Reached by Congress Doesn't Include More Farm Aid," https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

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