USDA Delayed Release of Trade Report

OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA delayed the release of its quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade report last Friday and removed the accompanying analysis because of internal concerns by the department's political appointees over an increase in the trade deficit, Politico reported Wednesday.

"The politically inconvenient data prompted administration officials to block publication of the written analysis normally attached to the report because they disliked what it said about the deficit," Politico stated in its report.

The trade report was supposed to be released on Friday afternoon at 3 p.m. EDT, but it was not published on the Economic Research Service website until Monday, though it was dated May 29.

The Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade report projected fiscal year 2025 exports at $170.5 billion, the same as February and down from FY 2024 by $3.9 billion. The report also forecasts imports at $220 billion, up $500 million from February and $13.8 billion higher than 2024.

The May report was 11 pages long with no accompanying written analysis. In comparison, the trade outlook report in February was 24 pages long with detailed analysis looking at world economics and data from both major export countries and importing countries. Politico, citing anonymous sources, said the numbers on the report were unchanged, but the accompanying analysis was redacted.

Responding to questions from DTN about the report, a USDA spokesperson sent a reply that was the same as comments provided to Politico. The comments suggested USDA could scrap some of its reports that are not required by statute.

"The report was hung up in internal clearance process and was not finalized in time for its typical deadline. Given this report is not statutory as with many other reports USDA does, the Department is undergoing a review of all of its non-statutory reports, including this one, to determine next steps."

USDA over time has taken pride in considering itself as the "gold standard" for agricultural statistics through the department's volumes of data from ERS, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), the World Agricultural Outlook Board and other USDA agencies. Market analysts rely heavily on such USDA reports.

"Objectivity is really key here and the public depends on it," Joe Glauber, former USDA chief economist, told Politico. "To lose that trust would be terrible."

In its proposed budget for FY 2026, USDA proposes cutting the budget for the Economic Research Service (ERS) from $97 million to $87 million and reduce staffing from 329 people down to 244 people. It's unclear how many ERS staff may have taken a USDA buyout plan. In 2019, the first Trump administration moved most ERS staff from Washington, D.C., to Kansas City, Missouri.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has been vocal about the agricultural trade deficit, blaming the Biden administration for not doing enough to promote agricultural trade. Rollins early Wednesday posted on X details about her trade trip this week to Rome.

"Wrapping a productive week of expanding U.S. Agriculture markets in Rome! Excited for the progress we're making to open up markets around the world. Biden's $44b ag trade deficit shrinking begins!! More bilateral trade news coming soon for our amazing row-croppers!

Next month: India, Vietnam and Japan. ALL GAS NO BRAKES!"

Shifting trade numbers in agriculture have been a focus of the new administration as President Donald Trump touted potentially higher exports of products such as beef to the United Kingdom and pressed countries such as China and India to buy more agricultural products.

Separately, Purdue University and CME Group released their monthly Ag Economy Barometer on Monday citing that farmer sentiment had reached its highest level since May 2021. "The sentiment boost was driven by a more optimistic outlook on U.S. agricultural exports and a less negative view of how tariffs will impact farm income in 2025," the report stated.

A White House account on X @RapidResponse47 also on Tuesday posted a Bloomberg writeup of the Purdue/CME report.

USDA May Agricultural Trade Outlook: https://ers.usda.gov/…

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

Follow him on social platform X @ChrisClaytonDTN

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