Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A stalled front and systems moving along it will bring showers to the Central U.S., and good weather across most of South America are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

WESTERN MIDWEST GETTING WET, FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND

It was mostly dry in the Midwest over the weekend, though a few showers fell in the west on Sunday. That was due to a front that will be stalled in the Northwestern portion of the region for the next several days. Systems moving along the front will continue shower chances for most of the week in the Northwest, before the front gets pushed eastward this weekend. Overall, showers may limit some harvest in the Northwest, but most areas should have good weather to continue work. Showers this weekend may push plans back a bit for some though.

STALLED FRONT, SYSTEMS BRINGING RAIN TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A few showers went through the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry. A front has stalled in the region and will be active as systems move along it throughout the week. Showers will be much more consistent farther north, though. Periods of precipitation may slow down harvest in some areas while others can go on without issue. Soil moisture is still mostly favorable for winter wheat establishment, but could use some rain in some spots, too.

NORTHERN PLAINS STAYING WET THIS WEEK

Scattered showers, some areas of heavier rain, and a touch of snow in Montana were all recorded in the Northern Plains over the weekend. Additional rain will move through Tuesday through Friday as a pair of systems continue to move along a front that has stalled off to the south. All of the precipitation is not favorable for harvest this week, and progress should be slower. Cooler temperatures are also producing frosts and freezes, common for this time of year.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATER LEVELS FALLING AGAIN

Dry weather in the Delta since the middle of last week is building momentum again for increasing drought. Though the Lower Mississippi River is getting a small boost in water levels from rain that fell in the Ohio Valley last week, that will not last long as the water makes its way to the Gulf. Drier conditions this week will not be helpful. Some showers moving through this weekend may slow the decline on the river at least a little bit, but are not expected to be heavy enough to produce significant change.

TRUE START TO WET SEASON HAS STARTED IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Showers are now scattered in central Brazil as the wet season rainfall is underway, seemingly for good. That may take some time to fill in areas that were very dry over the last two to three weeks, but is overall favorable for soybean planting and establishment. Consistent fronts moving north from Argentina are providing good moisture for corn and soybean establishment in the south.

GOOD PLANTING, EARLY GROWTH CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA

A front moved through Argentina over the weekend with scattered showers. Though it missed some areas, soil moisture is still very high and beneficial for crop development. Soybean planting will get started later in October. Though the developing La Nina in the Pacific tends to leave the country hotter and drier, conditions are so far favorable.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR EUROPE THIS WEEK

Isolated showers continued over eastern Europe over the weekend, which continues there for much of the week. Drier conditions in the northwest are a little concerning for winter wheat establishment, though not concerning enough as a system is forecast to move through these areas this weekend into next week.

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BLACK SEA

Scattered showers went through the Black Sea region over the weekend, but were not as heavy as some might have hoped with overall drought still an issue for much of western Russia. Only isolated showers are in the forecast for this week along with cooler temperatures that may produce frosts across the north on occasion.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

Some showers went through eastern Australia over the weekend, but much of Australia has been drier over the last couple of weeks, somewhat concerning for winter wheat and canola in some areas of the country. Where showers occurred and in others with good soil moisture, the dryness has not been all that concerning. Only limited showers are forecast to move through the country this week though, and drier areas are expanding if a few more systems fail to develop.

RAIN MAY BE TOO HEAVY IN CENTRAL CHINA

Rain has been consistent in central China for the last several weeks. Although this had been favorable for winter wheat and canola establishment, rainfall has been a little too high in some areas and may be causing some flooding. Drier weather in the Northeast has been more favorable for corn and soybean harvest. Scattered showers will continue this week before colder air descends through the country. That may produce some frosts for limited spots in central China. That would not be hazardous for too many spots, but may have some impact before the real start to winter occurs.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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