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  • Major wheat importers saw spikes in demand around the 2008 financial crisis as well as the 2011 Arab Spring. Inflationary pressures could make conditions ripe for such a buying spree in 2020 once again. (Chart by Tregg Cronin)

    The coronavirus has sent consumers scrambling to stores, buying up food staples, and causing a flurry of buying by flour mills that are trying to meet the demand. While the near-term buying is impressive, history shows growth to be much steadier.

  • June and July are the most popular months to set calendar year highs for December corn going back to 1990. Fortunately, highs have been seen in January only one time over the last 30 years. (Chart by Tregg Cronin)

    With the February crop insurance pricing period wrapping up on Feb. 28, a closer look at seasonal highs and lows for new crop can offer some profitable observations.

  • Fund traders in Chicago wheat are currently net long 6,424 contracts, a rare position going back to 2007. (Chart by Tregg Cronin)

    After several years of low volatility in a follower's role, Chicago wheat has stolen the spotlight in 2020 and could hold on into spring.

  • Several states in the Upper Midwest recorded their wettest September-November period on record going back 125 years this fall. The above average precipitation has soil moisture profiles brimming, which could be a recipe for disaster next spring. (Graphic courtesy of NOAA)

    In 2019, weather records fell left and right in the Midwest. Based on a wet finish to the growing season, the troubles of 2019 could very well drag into 2020.

  • U.S. sunflower ending supplies are poised to fall to the lowest level in five years before an expected yield cut is even factored in. Like corn and soybeans, harvested acres could also come under pressure due to an extended harvest season. (Chart by Tregg Cronin)

    The U.S. sunflower market has been tightening the past several years, and due to still-expected yield reductions, has the potential to feature record tightness in 2020.

  • The March USDA WASDE report did little to alter the bearish landscape of both U.S. and world soybeans. The record-large ending stocks in the U.S. of 900 million bushels, when coupled with combined Argentine and Brazilian soy production, portends an ongoing challenge to soy prices in 2019. (USDA chart)
    by Dana Mantini , Senior Market Analyst

    The February USDA WASDE report provided little support to bullish grain and soy traders. While U.S. wheat and corn ending stocks were raised more than expected and soy stocks remained burdensome, South American corn and soy production are expected to be 26.5 million metric tons (974 mb...

  • Among the high-yielding corn states, only Minnesota and Nebraska picked up meaningful corn acreage from the March Intentions report to the June Acreage report. (DTN file photo by Elaine Shein)
    by Alan Brugler , DTN Contributing Analyst

    A 3-million-acre jump in principal crop acres this year wasn't in the big four commodities. Instead, oats, sorghum, rice and hay accounted for a chunk of the increase, with producers trying to diversify into niche markets.

  • HRS wheat ending stocks have been shrinking to its tightest levels in four years. (Chart by Alan Brugler)
    by Alan Brugler , DTN Contributing Analyst

    The May USDA Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports showed us that higher-protein wheat is in short supply.

  • by Alan Brugler , DTN Contributing Analyst

    The star attractions of Thursday's USDA reports were clearly the lower-than-expected planting intentions for 2018 corn and soybeans, while the trade pretty much overlooked the Quarterly Grain Stocks report.

  • The June 30 USDA Acreage report added 1.3 million acres that were not there in the March report. (DTN photo by Pamela Smith)
    by Alan Brugler , DTN Contributing Analyst

    The March Planting Intentions gives producers early warnings about decisions that might harm them. The June Acreage report, which was released this past Friday, is valuable because it trues-up the numbers.

  • If there was a surprise in the Friday, June 9, report numbers, it was that USDA increased its estimate of Brazil's soybean production from 111.6 million metric tons to 114.0 mmt in 2016-17 and its estimate of Argentina's production from 57.0 mmt to 57.8 mmt. (DTN file photo)
    by Todd Hultman , DTN Lead Analyst

    DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom encouraged us to pick a card, any card before the WASDE report on Friday, June 9. It looks like we'll have to pick again before we learn more about this year's crops.