Another Look at USDA Reports

The USDA quarterly reports (Grain Stocks, Plantings, Small Grains, Hogs & Pigs, etc.) have a reputation for generating big market moves. That's partly because data is released less frequently, and thus, trade expectations can wander further between reports. The actual numbers also have more time to shift. These reports also tend to be released at the end of the month and end of the quarter, coinciding with spec fund position-squaring and asset allocation moves. There is more money sloshing around than on an average day.

That said, the June 2025 Grain Stocks and planted Acreage reports had some of the most benign revisions in recent memory. The main grains were also not overbought or oversold technically going into the reports, and that dampened the potential for any "sell the rumor, buy the fact" action. So, what is worth knowing about the report data? And could it still drive price action in July?

You likely know by now that USDA's corn acreage number of 95.203 million acres was down a modest 123,000 acres versus the slightly revised March number. The soybean revision was even smaller at 115,000 acres (down) and 83.380 million. The biggest revisions were for more hay acres and fewer edible beans and peas. Primary crops still look to be about a million acres below a year ago, and we're using 3.5 million to 4.5 million acres as implied Prevented Planting (aka PP) acres. The first report from FSA is due in August for that series.

The high-level view for soybeans is that, while USDA is measuring a likely bump in double-crop beans to 6% (versus 4% last year), the wet conditions in the Eastern Corn Belt and South don't appear to have resulted in more bean acres. That's helpful in working down -- or at least stabilizing -- soybean ending stocks in an environment where world ending stocks are ample, export flows are being rerouted by tariff negotiations, and the increase in required use for biofuels is still within the limits of preexisting production capacity.

Corn stocks nationally were seen on June 12 (WASDE) as the tightest since 2020-21, so acreage expansion in 2025 was logical. That's particularly so given tightening world stocks estimates, although the bin-busting Brazilian winter crop starting to come out of the field is putting pressure on global prices. The wild card on the 2025 production side is, of course, the yield multiplier effect on the increase in U.S. acreage. Ending stocks in 2026 could easily reach 1.9 billion to 2.1 billion bushels.

Now, for some of those details. NASS's June 1 soybean stocks were 38 million bushels (mb) larger than last year at 1.008 billion bushels (bb) and 24 mb larger than the average trade guess. That did cause some heartburn for old-crop futures, dropping 20 cents/bushel after the report release and settling down on the day. However, that surprise may not cause WASDE to change their ending stocks estimate of 350 mb. Implied third-quarter use is 903 mb, 20 mb larger than last year. Based on our preliminary crush and export numbers for the fourth quarter, seed and residual use would have to be net negative around 80 mb to 85 mb to fit the 350 mb ending stocks. That's not out of line with actual fourth quarter seed and residuals of -119 mb, -124.1 mb and -77.9 mb in the past three years. We would note that on-farm stocks are 12% smaller than a year ago, while off-farm holdings on June 1 were 18% larger. That suggests crushers are not only planning on using a record quantity of beans in the fourth quarter (which we would expect given the growth in crush plants), but also have many of the beans already under their control.

Finally, we like to look at summer corn supplies from a regional perspective, particularly when ending stocks are tighter than the previous couple of years. On-farm stocks nationally were down 12% on June 1 versus a year ago, while off-farm inventory was 6% larger. End users control a little more of the corn proportionally compared to last year, but stocks vary significantly by location.

In the Eastern Corn Belt (which we define here as Ohio, Indiana and Illinois), the June 1 corn stocks were 16.57% tighter this June than they were a year ago. Ohio supplies were down 23.1% year-over-year, with Indiana down 17.8% and Illinois shrinking by 14.2%. This is mostly due to the strong export program this year and implies a firmer basis. The Ohio and Indiana numbers are the tightest since 2021.

The Western Corn Belt (Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas in this series) had 2% more corn in the bins than a year ago, at 2.31 billion bushels. That year-over-year growth is mostly in Nebraska and Kansas, as Minnesota's June 1 stocks were 13% smaller than last year. In fact, nearly half of the corn remaining in the U.S. on June 1 (49.76%) was in those five states.

June 1		(1,000 bu)		2025/24
Corn Stocks	2023	2024	2025	% Change
Iowa	786,432	879,608	903,034	103%
Nebraska	411,601	430,873	536,772	125%
Minnesota	500,323	618,810	539,916	87%
Missouri	136,749	191,546	150,583	79%
Kansas	146,269	155,200	180,576	116%
Total	1,981,374	2,276,037	2,310,881	102%
Change	-131,612	294,663	34,844
U.S. June 1	4,103,309	4,993,173	4,643,636	93%
WCB % U.S.	48.29%	45.58%	49.76%	109%

Alan Brugler may be reached at alanb@bruglermktg.com

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