DTN Oil Update

Karim Bastati
DTN Analyst

VIENNA (DTN) -- Oil prices advanced Wednesday morning and were on track for the third consecutive monthly increase, driven by tight global fuels supply and stalling U.S.-Iranian negotiations.

By 8:45 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for November delivery was up $0.53 to trade near $103.12 bbl on its last trading day, while the December contract advanced $1.69 to $97.85 bbl. NYMEX WTI for November delivery rose $1.23 to $90.61 bbl.

Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for October delivery jumped $0.2454 to $5.1433 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures gained $0.0618 to $3.34 gallon.

The U.S. Dollar Index softened by 0.33 points to 100.785 against a basket of foreign currencies.

Prices seemingly shrugged off the resurgence in crude oil exports from the Middle East, which analysts estimate have over the past week clocked in at 75-90% of ante bellum levels. Risks to these streams remained unchanged, however, as Tehran issued new threats amid stalling negotiations with the U.S. What's more, the surge in crude oil supply has so far done little to alleviate an ongoing global fuels supply dearth that had just recently pushed European and U.S. diesel prices to record highs.

In contrast to Middle Eastern crude oil flows, refined product supply continued to be severely stifled. Damages to refineries from the Persian Gulf to Russia have capped global fuels production, and the overwhelming majority of product flows from the region still have to traverse the Strait of Hormuz given limited alternatives.

The eight month long global oil and product supply deficit has resulted in dwindling inventories. In the U.S., releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve have feathered declines in commercial crude stocks, an option unavailable for fuel inventories. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Monday said that crude oil volumes in strategic storage fell by 700,000 bbl last week, followed by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday reporting a 1 million bbl expansion in commercial inventories. API estimated gasoline stockpiles to have grown by nearly 3 million bbl last week, but said that distillate fuel oil inventories continued to shrink. If confirmed by EIA data scheduled for 10:30 a.m. EDT release Wednesday, API's estimated 286,000 bbl draw would widen the distillate inventory gap to year-ago levels to more than 13%.

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.