DTN Oil Update

Karim Bastati
DTN Analyst

VIENNA (DTN) -- Oil futures steadied Monday morning, retreating from the spike caused by U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities as market participants were awaiting an Iranian response. Iran has in recent weeks threatened strikes on U.S. military bases in the region should the United States intervene militarily in the Israel-Iran war.

NYMEX-traded WTI for August dropped $0.26 bbl to trade near $73.58 bbl, and ICE Brent for August delivery fell $0.22 bbl to $76.79 bbl.

July RBOB gasoline futures softened $0.0029 to $2.3266 gallon, and the front-month ULSD futures contract retreated $0.0212 to trade near $2.5206 gallon.

The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.593 points to 98.875.

On Sunday, the Iranian parliament voted to approve the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's executive branch has so far not made any efforts to block the vital transit way of 20% of global oil and product flows. Given the country's reliance on oil and gas exports and the steady stream of oil flows to China despite sanctions, analysts are torn on whether Iran would risk antagonizing its oil exporting neighbors, all while inviting foreign intervention and jeopardizing one of its own main revenue streams. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Iran shipped 1.5 million bpd through the Strait of Hormuz in the first three months of 2025.

Retaliatory responses could also include attacks on ships and oil infrastructure in the region via Iranian-aligned armed militias. The 2019 Houthi strike on Saudi Arabian oil facilities briefly shut in close to half of Saudi oil production, and the group has in the past repeatedly targeted oil tankers heading to the Suez Canal, leading to disruptions and longer voyage times.

An attack on U.S. military bases in the region, meanwhile, could invite a stronger military response by the United States, further destabilizing the region and jeopardizing oil flows.

Karim Bastati can be reached at Karim.Bastati@dtn.com