Top 5 Things to Watch

By DTN Staff

OMAHA (DTN) -- Here are the Top 5 things the DTN Newsroom is tracking for the week of Jan. 25. Watch for coverage of these and other topics throughout the week on our subscription platforms as well as on www.DTNPF.com.

Note that all report release and webinar times are Central Standard Time unless otherwise noted.

1. Winter's worst: As this is being written, most of the United States is preparing for the worst winter storm of the season, with snow, rain, freezing rain and sleet mixes, along with bitter cold. A cold air mass will plunge southward, bringing freezing conditions and potentially damaging precipitation deep into the South, with estimates that more than 200 million people will deal with the results. There also will be increased threats to wheat acres, livestock stress warnings, dangerous snow and ice loads on buildings, trees and power lines, and likely transportation issues because of ice and snow-covered roads. Makes one wonder: O, Canada. How hath we offended thee? Canadian farmers and ranchers are also dealing with windchills in the minus 40s Celsius.

2. Fed funds rate stake out: Tuesday and Wednesday the Federal Open Market Committee meets to decide on federal funds rate directions. Will rates stay flat, near the current 3.5-3.75% level? Or will economic signals, or the wants of an administration looking for wins, push in a change? Any rate announcements will be followed by the traditional Fed Chairman press conference at 1:30 p.m. Wednesday.

3. South America weather: Central Brazil continues to see favorable rainfall for filling soybeans. South-central areas have been drier and that may continue this week. That dryness could reduce top-end yields where soybean pod-filling is wrapping up. Soil moisture remains low for the coming safrinha corn crop as well, which will be planted immediately after soybeans are harvested. In Argentina, conditions have been very dry across the southern half of the country for quite some time. Soil moisture and crop conditions continue to fall, which will have some effect on both corn and soybean production. Models have increased chances for spotty showers for more of the country this week, but prospects are still low.

4. Davos follow-up: We'll be watching for any follow-on trade or economic issues after the World Economic Forum wrap up in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, an event that many observers said produced more questions and uncertainty than answers and global direction.

5. Reports due this week: First, a reminder that many of these reports are still months-old data as agencies work to clear out reports delayed by the 2025 government shutdown. Commitments of Traders reports are now up to date. Monday at 7:30 a.m. we'll see Durable Goods Orders data (delayed from November), then at 10 a.m., Grain Inspections. Tuesday at 9 a.m. is the release of Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales data. Wednesday at 9:30 a.m. we'll see EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status, including ethanol production and stocks. At 1 p.m., is the FOMC interest rate decision followed at 1:30 p.m. by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference. At 2 p.m., Broiler Hatchery numbers will be released. Thursday at 7:30 a.m., are Grain Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Trade Deficit (delayed from November), and U.S. Productivity data for Q3. At 10:30 a.m., we'll see the Weekly Economic Index, then at 2 p.m. the Slaughter Weekly report. Friday at 7:30 a.m. we'll see Producer Price Index and Core PPI, the 9 a.m. release of Wholesale Inventories for November and Factory Orders for November. Then at 2:30 p.m. the CFTC's Commitment of Traders report (current data).

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