Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A couple of bigger spring-like storms moving across the U.S. and more chances for rain in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

AT LEAST TWO SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH MIDWEST THIS WEEK

A system went across the southern half of the Midwest with moderate rain over the weekend while warmer temperatures continued, especially in the west. Snowpack is extremely low across most of the region, and we will need to see significant precipitation prior to spring planting to feel good about soil moisture. Streaks of drought, especially from Missouri to northwestern Ohio, are the major issues heading into spring, though the weather pattern is opening up and promising some bigger storm potential. One system will move through late Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by another for Thursday and Friday. When added together, there is potential for widespread rain and thunderstorms south with snow across the north.

LIMITED MOISTURE, STRONG WINDS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

It was extremely warm in the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend. Though some good rain fell across the region, soil moisture maps are not all that favorable for winter wheat, especially across the west, and drought is a big problem across Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas prior to spring planting. Many systems are forecast to move through the region over the next two weeks, and could bring some batches of precipitation, but the forecast favors areas to the north and east for anything significant. Instead, strong winds could dry soils quicker, especially with temperatures remaining warm early this week and again next week.

TWO PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Extremely warm air over the last week has all but melted all of the snow in the Northern Plains, which is way too early. However, we still have some time to build up some snow before the true spring thaw. A big winter storm will move through with some heavy snow for northern areas Tuesday and Wednesday and additional snow may come to southern areas on Thursday. Colder temperatures will stick around for a little while as well, but are likely to rise ahead of the next big storm next week. Strong winds will also occur across the region with multiple big storms forecast for the end of February.

HEAVY RAIN IN DELTA BOOSTED MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A system moved through the southern U.S. over the weekend, which brought widespread precipitation to most areas of the Delta. This will provide some boost to the Mississippi River, but more will be needed to ease the drought that is very widespread through the Delta prior to spring planting. Multiple larger storms are forecast for the rest of February, which may provide some benefit to the rivers, but favors the Plains and Midwest with the significant precipitation.

CENTRAL BRAZIL CONTINUES TO SEE SHOWERS

Scattered showers moved through southern Brazil over the weekend, but were very isolated over central Brazil, which may have allowed fieldwork to progress more rapidly as the country continues to harvest soybeans and plant corn. A front across the south will move back into central areas this week, though it will still be awfully scattered for the rest of the week. They may intensify this weekend into next week, but the country needs the rain as subsoil moisture continues to be low for this time of year and will be counted on for the coming safrinha corn crop.

SPORADIC RAINS IN ARGENTINA CREATING MIXED CONDITIONS

A front brought scattered showers to Argentina over the weekend, but most areas saw light rain while only a few lucky areas saw anything beneficial. A few more waves of showers will move through the country through Saturday before another dry stretch commences. The dry stretch may only last a week with showers returning by next Wednesday. Rain has improved soil moisture lately, but both corn and soybeans have been trying to improve conditions since the end of January with little progress. Crop conditions for both have not increased since the declines started in early January. For some of the crop, the rains are too late, but there is still time for the later-planted portions of both crops.

BUSY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES IN EUROPE, GIVES SPAIN A BREAK

An active weather pattern for Europe continued over the weekend, but also allowed a break for Spain, which had been inundated for the last couple of months. Poland has not had the precipitation it needs for spring, but there is still time. The active pattern continues through at least the end of February and is both favorable for winter crops, and the coming spring planting season. Some areas may be too wet to work properly though, which may delay fieldwork if it extends too far into March.

ACTIVE PATTERN FOR BLACK SEA REGION

A bigger storm system moved through the Black Sea region over the weekend, which also made for some beneficial precipitation for drier parts of southwestern Russia as well. The weather pattern is becoming much more active and chances for frequent precipitation will continue through the end of February. Temperatures remain mixed, but without threat from arctic bursts that would be damaging to wheat.

RAIN IS LIMITED IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Northern Australia has seen a marked increase in precipitation in 2026, but primary agricultural areas, particularly in the east, have not. Some beneficial rainfall did fall in Queensland over the weekend, but reducing the dryness has been difficult to achieve over the last several weeks. The same is true this week as systems will still be moving through, but with patchy rainfall that won't be likely to increase soil moisture for cotton and sorghum that is largely in the fill stage.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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