DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is trough across the Central and Eastern U.S. with a couple of disturbances in Canada as well. A ridge will be building in the West this week, but the disturbances in Canada will help to reinforce the trough throughout the week. Eventually those disturbances will run out and be replaced by another ridge over Canada.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Both ridges will help to shift the trough off the East Coast early next week.

While the harsh weather will leave, clippers will still move through Canada and the northern U.S. next week and eventually a trough will return to Canada either at the end of next week or weekend, which will threaten more cold air for the eastern half of the country.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though they disagree about the timing and impact of various clippers through next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Several clipper systems will move through Canada and the northern U.S. this weekend through next week. Despite this, a general warming trend is forecast for most of the country. Areas with significant snowfall from this past weekend's major winter storm will take a longer time to warm up, and the East Coast may not have enough time to partake in the warming before the cold air comes back in the second week of February.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...90 AT FORT LAUDERDALE, FL AND WEST PALM BEACH, FL

LOW MON...31 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...JUNEAU, AK 1.12 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is trough across the Central and Eastern U.S. with a couple of disturbances in Canada as well. A ridge will be building in the West this week, but the disturbances in Canada will help to reinforce the trough throughout the week. Eventually those disturbances will run out and be replaced by another ridge over Canada. Both ridges will help to shift the trough off the East Coast early next week. While the harsh weather will leave, clippers will still move through Canada and the northern U.S. next week and eventually a trough will return to Canada either at the end of next week or weekend, which will threaten more cold air for the eastern half of the country.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though they disagree about the timing and impact of various clippers through next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Several clipper systems will move through Canada and the northern U.S. this weekend through next week. Despite this, a general warming trend is forecast for most of the country. Areas with significant snowfall from this past weekend's major winter storm will take a longer time to warm up, and the East Coast may not have enough time to partake in the warming before the cold air comes back in the second week of February.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Harsh cold air will be replaced by warmth throughout the week and warmer temperatures are forecast for this weekend and next week. A few clipper systems will move through, but precipitation will be rather limited overall. There may be some sneaky moderate snow on Thursday and Friday, however, as warmer air tries to move into the cold to push it out.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A massive winter storm left a trail of ice and snow across most of the region this weekend. Cold air remains in the region and will be reinforced by a couple of cold fronts through this weekend before temperatures eventually rise above normal next week to help melt off the snow. Some wheat areas with heavy snow cover should have some protection from the cold while other areas will see some damage. The cold will stress cattle for a while longer yet as well.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Clippers will continue to bring reinforcements of cold air throughout the week. Warmer temperatures are forecast to move in next week, but will take longer over areas with heavier snow cover. There is not much wheat that is exposed with low snow cover, but there are some areas that may sustain some damage.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): A major winter storm pushed through the region over the weekend. Though there are issues with infrastructure, the precipitation will give a boost to local rivers. Extremely cold air in the region could lead to issues with ice jams on local rivers this week, however.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Central Brazil continues to see favorable rainfall for filling soybeans throughout the week. South-central areas have been drier lately, which may be causing some stress, though showers are moving back in this week. Soil moisture remains low for the coming safrinha corn crop though, which will be planted immediately after soybeans are harvested over the next few weeks.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It has been very dry across the southern half of Argentina for quite some time, though isolated showers did fall in some areas over the weekend. Spotty showers are forecast through Wednesday. And while a front should come through this weekend with additional showers, models are going back to limited or no precipitation for the primary corn and soybean areas of the country. Soil moisture and crop conditions are low and are expected to continue falling until the weather pattern becomes more active. Occasional high temperatures this week may add to the stresses as well.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): The weather pattern has been quite active over the vast majority of the continent for some time, continuing to be favorable for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat across the south. The same active weather pattern continues throughout the week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): It was very cold in western Russia over the weekend, but warmer air started to move into Ukraine and is spreading through the region this week, ending the risk of winterkill on winter wheat. Some damage may have occurred over the last week's worth of arctic cold, though. The warmer air will also come with increased showers, though Ukraine will be favored over southwestern Russia, which has a higher need for precipitation. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation over the winter before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring. Forecasts have also turned colder this weekend into next week with another push of arctic air coming, which may bring back winterkill thoughts to the region.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, as spotty showers are not enough to battle the higher summer heat. Even the remnants of tropical storms cannot seem to hit the primary agricultural areas with any significant moisture. Dry weather continues for most areas over the next week and will not be favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and sorghum. However, a front may stall over eastern areas next week that may provide some beneficial rainfall in some areas.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been limited over the last couple of months. Some helpful precipitation may fall in some areas later this week, but the region will need much more before wheat and canola awaken from dormancy in the next couple of months.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures well below normal.

East: Isolated snow north. Temperatures well below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures above normal northwest and below normal southeast Sunday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated snow northwest Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures above normal northwest and below normal southeast Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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