Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued cold air in the U.S. and dryness in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

MIDWEST STAYING COLD THIS WEEK

Clippers will continue to bring reinforcements of cold air to the Midwest throughout the week. Warmer temperatures are forecast to move in next week, but will take longer over areas with heavier snow cover. There is not much wheat that is exposed with low snow cover, but there are some areas that may sustain some damage.

COLD AIR CONTINUES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A massive winter storm left a trail of ice and snow across most of the Central and Southern Plains this weekend. Cold air remains in the region and will be reinforced by a couple of cold fronts through this weekend before temperatures eventually rise above normal next week to help melt off the snow. Some wheat areas with heavy snow cover should have some protection from the cold, while other areas will see some damage. The cold will stress cattle for a while longer.

COLD AIR EVENTUALLY LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK

Harsh cold air in the Northern Plains will be replaced by warmth throughout the week, and warmer temperatures are forecast for this weekend and next week. A few clipper systems will move through, but precipitation will be rather limited overall. There may be some sneaky moderate snow on Thursday and Friday, however, as warmer air tries to move into the cold to push it out.

WATER LEVELS RISING ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A major winter storm pushed through the Delta region over the weekend. Though there are issues with infrastructure, the precipitation will give a boost to local rivers. Extremely cold air in the region could lead to issues with ice jams on local rivers this week, however.

HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Central Brazil continues to see favorable rainfall for filling soybeans throughout the week. South-central areas have been drier lately, which may be causing some stress, though showers are moving back in this week. Soil moisture remains low for the coming safrinha corn crop, though, which will be planted immediately after soybeans are harvested over the next few weeks.

SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA, BUT OVERALL DRY

It has been very dry across the southern half of Argentina for quite some time, though isolated showers did fall in some areas over the weekend. Spotty showers are forecast through Wednesday. And while a front should come through this weekend with additional showers, models are going back to limited or no precipitation for the primary corn and soybean areas of the country. Soil moisture and crop conditions are low and are expected to continue falling until the weather pattern becomes more active. Occasional high temperatures this week may add to the stresses as well.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN EUROPE

The weather pattern has been quite active over the vast majority of Europe for some time, continuing to be favorable for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat across the south. The same active weather pattern continues throughout the week.

TEMPERATURES RISING IN THE BLACK SEA REGION, COLD AIR LURKING THIS WEEKEND

It was very cold in western Russia over the weekend, but warmer air started to move into Ukraine and is spreading through the region this week, ending the risk of winterkill on winter wheat. Some damage may have occurred over the last week's worth of arctic cold, though. The warmer air will also come with increased showers, though Ukraine will be favored over southwestern Russia, which has a higher need for precipitation. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation over the winter before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring. Forecasts have also turned colder this weekend into next week with another push of arctic air coming, which may bring back winterkill thoughts to the region.

CONTINUED DRYNESS IN AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, as spotty showers are not enough to battle the higher summer heat. Even the remnants of tropical storms cannot seem to hit the primary agricultural areas with any significant moisture. Dry weather continues for most areas over the next week and will not be favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and sorghum. However, a front may stall over eastern areas next week that may provide some beneficial rainfall in some areas.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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