DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A ridge is taking over the U.S. A larger trough is sitting over northern Canada. The trough will direct storm systems mostly along and north of the border both this week and next.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The overall pattern continues for the week of Christmas with a ridge dominating the U.S. and a trough across Canada.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The pattern continues to be an overall warm one in the U.S., but cold air lingers up in Canada. A front will move through the country this weekend with areas of showers and briefly cooler air across the north. Northern areas will continue to be the target for an active weather pattern along the border next week with a couple of storm systems to move through. Despite that, the forecast calls for largely above-normal temperatures and some record high potential for Christmas, particularly for the southern half of the country.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...89 AT PALM SPRINGS, CA

LOW MON...15 BELOW ZERO AT MOUNT WASHINGTON, NH

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...SEATTLE, WA 1.02 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A ridge is taking over the U.S. A larger trough is sitting over northern Canada. The trough will direct storm systems mostly along and north of the border both this week and next. Those systems may still have some important impacts to the U.S., though, especially one moving through mid-to-late this week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The pattern continues to be an overall warm one in the U.S., but cold air lingers up in Canada. A front will move through the country this weekend with areas of showers and briefly cooler air across the north. Northern areas will continue to be the target for an active weather pattern along the border next week with a couple of storm systems to move through. Despite that, the forecast calls for largely above-normal temperatures and some record high potential for Christmas, particularly for the southern half of the country.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Warmer air is moving into the region. A system will move along the border on Wednesday into Thursday and bring through a few showers and a quick burst of colder air for Thursday. Another front will move through Friday and Saturday and the region will be in the way of the overall storm track near the border through next week. That may continue to bring through changing temperatures, but an overall warmer trend is occurring while the colder air is forecast to remain largely in Canada.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Warmer air is in place and will continue through Christmas with little exception, and could be record high next week. A front will sweep through with some briefly milder air and a few showers on Wednesday into Thursday, but drier and warmer conditions are largely expected for a little while longer. That is not a good combination for winter wheat, which is seeing soil moisture falling. It is a slow process in the winter, but will have detrimental effects if this keeps up over the season.

Warmer air may awaken some wheat as well, which would reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures continue to rise across the region for the next couple of days. A system will bring through some showers and another brief burst of colder temperatures on Thursday, initiating more lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes. Another system may do something a bit similar but with less cold air and showers this weekend. The region will be in the way of the overall storm track along the border through next week, but should be overall warmer with lighter showers through the end of the year. The warmer air should cause significant melting of snow and get that moisture into the soil column.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): A few showers will move through on Wednesday and Thursday, but showers will be hard to come by as a general below-normal precipitation pattern continues. Water levels continue to be quite low, though some warmer air up north will melt some of the snowpack in the Midwest and give a little boost to the rivers as well. It just will not be enough and more precipitation is needed.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will continue with enhanced showers across the south on Tuesday. Another front is forecast to move into the south early next week. Showers have been less intense across central Brazil over the last week, but the coverage has been good, which is still improving soil moisture. Those showers continue this week as well. Overall conditions continue to be either favorable or improving.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front brought scattered showers through the country Sunday and Monday, which brought some needed rain to some areas that were starting to dry out a bit. Some isolated showers may move through southern areas this week, but most areas will be dry until another front moves through this weekend. Forecasts have increased the rainfall for that front. And despite a drier stretch of weather recently, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, favorable for developing corn and soybeans.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A secondary storm track will mean scattered showers across the Mediterranean for the next couple of days and again this weekend.

Some needed rainfall is forecast for Italy and parts of Spain. Soil moisture is favorable across much of the rest of the continent for dormant winter wheat.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Some needed precipitation moved through late last week and weekend, but dryness is still an issue for winter wheat that went into dormancy in mixed condition. It will be another warm and dry week this week, unfavorable for winter wheat.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers moved across some eastern areas this weekend, but soil moisture is still mixed around the country's wheat belt. It will be a fairly dry next several days. A better chance for scattered showers starts on Friday and then continues into the weekend, but mostly for eastern areas. Wheat and canola are still being harvested and will find mostly favorable conditions. Meanwhile, cotton and sorghum planting continues and early-planted areas will need to see this rain come to fruition.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system that went through on Friday and Saturday brought widespread precipitation, but light amounts. Dry and colder weather over the last few weeks has been pushing winter wheat and canola into dormancy.

Southern areas are still in a much drier trend and in need of more rainfall.

Very little is forecast through the end of the month.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures well below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday night-Thursday. Isolated showers north Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, falling Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

East: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday. Temperatures rising Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday, below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Thursday.

Temperatures near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures above to well above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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