DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Northeast with a ridge in the West and Central.

Another trough moving into the West Coast in two pieces. The northern portion will move through Canada this weekend into early next week. The southern portion will spin around the Southwest this weekend and get into the Plains early next week. That will force the ridge eastward.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The western trough will continually be reinforced and push pieces of energy through the continent through the end of the month. The ridge will not be strong enough to contain them all, but it will redevelop in the wake of each of those pieces of energy.

The U.S. and European models are closer together, but have changed dramatically over the last couple of days. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move into the Plains early next week and then head east the rest of the week. Another system should move through right behind it in the middle of next week. This system is forecast to become much stronger as it moves through the country, resulting in a large, fall system that may produce widespread precipitation, thunderstorms, strong winds, and possibly some snow.

This system will kick off a much more active weather pattern across the U.S. for the rest of November.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...94 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW WED...4 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON, NH

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...WATERTOWN, NY 0.71 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Northeast with a ridge in the West and Central.

Another trough moving into the West Coast in two pieces. The northern portion will move through Canada this weekend into early next week. The southern portion will spin around the Southwest this weekend and get into the Plains early next week. That will force the ridge eastward. The western trough will continually be reinforced and push pieces of energy through the continent through the end of the month. The ridge will not be strong enough to contain them all, but it will redevelop in the wake of each of those pieces of energy.

The U.S. and European models are closer together, but have changed dramatically over the last couple of days. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move into the Plains early next week and then head east the rest of the week. Another system should move through right behind it in the middle of next week. This system is forecast to become much stronger as it moves through the country, resulting in a large, fall system that may produce widespread precipitation, thunderstorms, strong winds, and possibly some snow.

This system will kick off a much more active weather pattern across the U.S. for the rest of November.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will move through on Friday and Saturday with limited showers and a drop in temperature. The storm frequency is forecast to increase next week with a couple moving through with better coverage of precipitation. With temperatures falling to more seasonable readings this weekend, it could mean some areas of snow next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures will remain above normal temperatures through the weekend. A system will move in early next week with areas of precipitation that will increase later in the week. Models are still working out the timing and coverage of precipitation, but could mean some snow in the north and strong winds. More systems will be possible afterward for the rest of the month as the pattern gets a bit more active.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system moving through Canada may bring some light showers through this weekend. Temperatures are rising and may be record-high ahead of that front. Temperatures will drop behind it.

Another system is likely to bring showers to the region early next week with more being likely later in the week as the pattern gets more active for the second half of the month.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels continue to be low on the Mississippi River, causing transportation restrictions. The region needs a more active weather pattern to lift water levels again. The pattern may become more active starting next week. We may not see enough precipitation to significantly raise water levels this month, but may be the start of a pattern that is more favorable over the winter.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front that has moved into the country is forecast to produce quite a bit of rain into the weekend. One more front will move into southern areas this weekend. With this front lifting northward into central Brazil early next week and stalling, that could be the start of some drier-than-normal conditions for southern Brazil after a very wet start to the growing season.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Soil moisture is still really good across much of the country. One more front will move through this weekend with widespread showers, but the pattern may start to get drier afterward, with models insistent on fronts with less rainfall potential for the rest of November and into December. If the heat can start to increase as well, we could see a big turnaround in weather conditions for corn and soybeans going forward.

The winter wheat crop has enjoyed enough good weather to produce a good crop, though the frequent rain has increased disease pressure.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers continue across western areas for the rest of the week while a cold front moves down into the north with showers for this weekend. Cooler and wetter weather are in the forecast for next week.

Weather conditions are still relatively favorable for winter wheat establishment throughout much of the continent as winter crops start to go dormant across the north.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Despite some showers this week, eastern areas are still dealing with rainfall deficits and drought for winter wheat establishment. More limited showers are forecast for next week, but the region needs more rain. Temperatures are still above normal, delaying dormancy for northern areas. With the limited soil moisture around, wheat is growing in poor soil moisture and dormancy would actually be favored. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system moving through eastern areas late this week and weekend could bring scattered showers, but many areas will be missed. Drier conditions are forecast there next week with showers increasing across the west. Mixed conditions are still found across the country. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature and harvest beginning, there is little time for rain to be beneficial. After the harvest, cotton and sorghum planting will begin, but they need more rainfall.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall conditions for the remaining corn and soybean harvest in northeast China and winter wheat and canola establishment in central China are favorable, though heavy rain in early October may have caused issues. Southern areas have been having issues with dryness, which may affect sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops. Dry conditions are largely forecast through next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures near normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday, below normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal south and near to above normal north through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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