Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A system and front moving through the U.S. this weekend, and good weather across most of South America are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND

A stalled front in the Midwest made for some showers on Wednesday. Another system will move north into Canada on Thursday, pushing the front eastward this weekend. That may cause some heavier rain and stronger thunderstorms to develop across the East. Recent rainfall may have been stalling harvest in the northwest, but most areas have had good weather to continue work this week. Showers this weekend may push plans back a bit for some though.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system moving through the Northern Plains will push a cold front through the Central and Southern Plains through Saturday with variable showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation may slow down harvest in some areas while others can go on without issue. Soil moisture is still mostly favorable for winter wheat establishment, but could use some rain in some spots, especially south. Only limited areas of beneficial rainfall are forecast for winter wheat.

SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers continue across the Northern Plains through Friday as a system moves through the region. Another system is likely to move through Sunday and Monday with some showers as well. Temperatures will be quite variable as the systems move through. All of the recent and forecast precipitation is not favorable for harvest, and progress should be slower.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATER LEVELS FALLING, SHOULD GET A BOOST THIS WEEKEND

Dry weather since the middle of last week is building momentum again for increasing drought in the Delta and water levels on the Lower Mississippi River are declining. Drier conditions this week have not been helpful. Some showers moving through on Saturday may slow the decline on the river at least a little bit, but are not expected to be heavy enough to produce significant change.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH BRAZIL

Showers are now scattered in central Brazil as the wet season rainfall continues. That may take some time to fill in areas that were very dry over the last three weeks, but is overall favorable for soybean planting and establishment. A front will move through southern areas through Saturday, bringing widespread moderate to heavy rainfall that continues to be favorable for that region. The front will move into central Brazil this weekend and may have a tendency to move too far north next week, which could leave some central areas drier for several days.

GOOD SOIL MOISTURE IN ARGENTINA

Though it has been a little drier across southern and central Argentina, soil moisture is still very high and beneficial for crop development. A front is bringing showers to northern areas for Thursday and Friday. Southern areas may have to wait until later next week for rain to return. Soybean planting will get started in a couple of weeks. Though the developing La Nina in the Pacific tends to leave the country hotter and drier, conditions so far are favorable. Fronts and systems do seem to be heading toward a downtrend in frequency, which may need to be monitored over the next few weeks.

BIGGER SYSTEM HEADING FOR EUROPE THIS WEEKEND, NEXT WEEK

Isolated showers continue over eastern Europe for the next few days. Drier conditions in the northwest have been a little concerning for winter wheat establishment, but a system is forecast to move through this weekend into next week, likely with heavy rain. Showers should work south and east throughout next week as well as a stormier weather pattern takes hold.

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE BLACK SEA MAY BECOME SCATTERED THIS WEEKEND

Only isolated showers have been occurring this week and drought is still a major problem for the Black Sea region, specifically in western Russia. Showers may be more scattered and beneficial this weekend as a system moves through, but this region needs a lot more rain for winter wheat establishment. Only limited showers are forecast for next week as well.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

Much of Australia has been drier over the last couple of weeks, somewhat concerning for winter wheat and canola in some areas of the country. Some areas still have good soil moisture though. Only limited showers are forecast to move through the country for the next week, and drier areas are expanding if a few more systems fail to develop next week.

RAIN MAY BE TOO HEAVY IN CENTRAL CHINA

Rain has been consistent in central China for the last several weeks. Although this had been favorable for winter wheat and canola establishment, rainfall has been a little too high in some areas and may be causing some flooding. Drier weather in the northeast has been more favorable for corn and soybean harvest. Scattered showers will continue into Friday before colder air descends through the country. That may produce some frosts for limited spots in central China. That would not be hazardous for too many spots, but may have some impact before the real start to winter occurs. The colder weather may impact harvest across the northeast as well.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.