DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across most of the U.S. and Canada with a trough in the West and another in western Canada. The western trough will wobble around the West through next week. The western Canada trough will move across Canada this weekend and early next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge will redevelop across Canada behind the trough but it may not last long. We could see another trough moving through Canada later next week.

The U.S. and European models have many differences from run to run, making the forecast difficult. The best method is to usually go with the consensus, but that is hard to determine at this time. Major changes to the forecast are possible for next week.

After a front leaves the country midweek with scattered showers, drier weather is likely to return. A system is likely to go through Canada late next week and weekend and could bring showers through the U.S. as well. The temperature forecast is erratic with many differences in the models. A burst of cooler air behind the midweek front may not last long, with higher temperatures to follow, though another burst of cooler air may follow behind the second front should it be strong enough.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...104 AT GILA BEND, AZ

LOW THU...22 AT ANGEL FIRE, NM AND DANIEL, WY

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...DAYTONA BEACH, FL 2.40 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across most of the U.S. and Canada with a trough in the West and another in western Canada. The western trough will wobble around the West through next week. The western Canada trough will move across Canada this weekend and early next week. The ridge will redevelop across Canada behind the trough but it may not last long. We could see another trough moving through Canada later next week.

The U.S. and European models have many differences from run to run, making the forecast difficult. The best method is to usually go with the consensus, but that is hard to determine at this time. Major changes to the forecast are possible for next week.

After a front leaves the country midweek with scattered showers, drier weather is likely to return. A system is likely to go through Canada late next week and weekend and could bring showers through the U.S. as well. The temperature forecast is erratic with many differences in the models. A burst of cooler air behind the midweek front may not last long, with higher temperatures to follow, though another burst of cooler air may follow behind the second front should it be strong enough.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A weak front has moved into the region. Scattered showers are likely this weekend as a system moves along that front. Any rainfall is likely to be disruptive to the drydown of crops as well as harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Though a few spotty showers are possible, warm and largely dry conditions continue in most areas for the next day or two, favorable for fieldwork of all kinds. A front will move into the region over the weekend and may produce showers into early next week. Any rainfall would not be favorable for harvest, but would keep soil moisture fairly high for winter wheat planting and establishment.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Though a couple of spotty showers may develop, warm and dry conditions continue for the next few days, favoring fieldwork. A front will produce showers as it gets into the region on Sunday, with better chances for widespread showers early next week. Rainfall could be disruptive to maturing crops and harvest. Temperatures should take a dive behind this front, but to what degree is unknown as models disagree greatly for next week's forecast.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Warm and dry weather is favorable for harvest, but not for the river systems, which are drying back out again after getting a nice bump from last week's rainfall. Some showers will develop northward from the Gulf this weekend into early next week before a front clears through the region. The rainfall is not forecast to be all that heavy. Largely drier conditions this fall would cause transportation issues for much of the season.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front will continue to produce rainfall in southern Brazil through Saturday, favorable for planting and early growth.

Another front is forecast to bring more showers through early next week.

Central Brazil is much drier and only spotty showers are in the forecast through next week, unfavorable for soybean planting after a round of rain got progress going well ahead of schedule in the region. Seeds that have been planted are at risk of germinating and quickly dying until the rains become more consistent, which looks to occur in mid-October.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Most areas have good soil moisture for early planting and establishment. Another front moving through this weekend should produce more widespread rainfall but a significant drop in temperature. Soybean planting may have started this week, but most areas will wait for significant planting later on in October when overnight lows are more reliably above 10 Celsius.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Showers have favored the Balkans this week and continue into Saturday, which was sorely needed for winter wheat planting and establishment. Another system is moving into the west on Friday with strong winds and widespread rainfall, which will spread through most of the continent this weekend. Additional showers are forecast for next week as well, but will be more patchy. Spain is forecast to be left out, which could use more rain.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system in southeastern Europe has been producing widespread rainfall in Ukraine over the last several days with showers lasting through the weekend. Some areas remain very dry though for winter wheat planting and establishment, especially in southwestern Russia.

Drier-than-normal weather is likely for next week and beyond, which may mean only limited benefit from this week's rainfall.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): The country is in the midst of a drier stretch, which is somewhat troubling for winter wheat and canola going through their reproductive and fill stages. Western areas could see some beneficial rainfall this weekend, and that may spread to southeastern areas next week in a couple of waves, but rainfall amounts are still forecast to be below normal for most areas.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Weather continues to be mostly favorable for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China, though colder weather is starting to make its way into the forecast that could slow down progress. Central China continues to regular showers through next week, favorable for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Spotty showers in Kansas. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, below normal north and above normal south Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday, falling Monday, below normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Spotty showers northwest. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Spotty showers northwest through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday, near to below normal south and above normal north Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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